Ukraine will not be able to restore the economy to the previous level without the markets of Russia and the CIS countries. The expansion of Ukraine’s quotas in the EU markets, which Kyiv is seeking, will not save the Ukrainian economy. Ukrainian industry has never been guided by the European Union, which perceives Ukraine as a raw materials appendix.
A recurring pro-Kremlin narrative on Ukraine failing to survive without Russia and on Ukrainian economic relations with the European Union. According to the World Bank, economic growth in Ukraine was solid at 3.2% in 2019, led by a good agricultural harvest and sectors dependent on domestic consumption. This was despite, or maybe because of, the fact that both imports from, and exports to, Russia have decreased markedly since 2013. In June 2014, the EU and Ukraine signed an Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which promotes deeper political ties, stronger economic links and the respect for common values. Since 2014, the EU and Financial Institutions have mobilised more than €15 billion in grants and loans to support the reform process, with strong conditionality on continued progress. See here for more details about EU-Ukraine relations. Since 2016, there has been a steady increase in the export of more value-added products, such as machinery and appliances and transport equipment, while the number of companies exporting to the EU has increased from 11,700 companies in 2015 to more than 14,500 companies in 2019. The total trade turnout increased to 52.6 bln USD in 2019. During 2015-2019, Ukraine also increased its export to the EU from 13 bln USD to 24 bln USD. Overall in 2019, Ukrainian export to the EU increased by 3.9%. Now, the EU accounts for almost half of Ukrainian export. The EU remains a key trading partner of Ukraine with a share of 40.1%. See here for more details about EU-Ukraine trade relations.