Guerilla warfare and complete disintegration are coming to the US-controlled Ukraine

Summary

Recently the confrontation between president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and minister of interior Arsen Avakov, represented by Ukrainian national battalions, has entered a new phase. Negativity is accumulated, the dialogue is avoided by the sides, a formation of an enemy image are already there. Guerilla warfare and subversive acts are coming, and any accident can provoke a new coup which will give a start to a new stage of Ukraine’s disintegration.

The entry of Zelenskyy in power became a catalyst of conflicts between Ukrainian elites. They will result in Ukraine’s collapse, because even the US – and its embassy plays a colonial role in Ukraine – will not be able to restrain the conflict, given that Ukrainian elites copy the split between American elites. At the same time, the US will not allow either Zelenskyy or Avakov to be destroyed. Hence the conflict will be developing cyclically until Ukraine’s complete disintegration.

 

 

 

Disproof

This publication represents a mix of conspiracies and groundless allegations aimed to discredit Ukraine, claiming that the country is resigned to a bleak future and imminent collapse. It is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin narratives about Ukraine's disintegration and imminent collapse and Ukraine as a puppet state controlled by the US.

Ukraine is a sovereign state. Neither the US nor the EU countries control Ukraine. Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are respected by most of the free world but were violated by Russia in 2014.

It was reported that Zelenskyy and Avakov had working disagreements, however, their scope and possible consequences are groundlessly exaggerated in the publication.

See earlier disinformation cases alleging that the US has turned Ukraine into a puppet, that Ukraine will disintegrate and fall prey to territorial claims of EU member states, that Ukraine is a failed state and will be split up, and that Ukraine will either be part of Russian civilization, or a decaying anti-Russia emanating terrorist threats.

 

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 171
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 01/11/2019
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: US, Ukraine
  • Keywords: Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukrainian disintegration, Coup, Conspiracy, Ukrainian statehood
  • Outlet: Regnum
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Poland may end up being partitioned between Germany and Russia

With the ultimate aim to ruin the Belarus-Russia integration process and to bring Belarus closer to Poland, Warsaw is changing the ways of working with the Belarusian opposition. Polish security bodies are currently placing a greater emphasis on Belarusian informants. At the same time, NATO aims at constraining Belarus’ allied commitments towards Russia and at ruling out Belarus’ activities in case of NATO threat to the Kaliningrad region. Americans pressure Belarus to take a passive position in the possible NATO-Russia conflict. Taken together, enforcement of NATO military grouping along Belarusian borders and Polish elites’ attempts to bring discord in Belarus-Russia relations aim at distracting Belarusian resources from the economic sector to defence.

Polish foreign policy is generally very cyclical. As a rule, it tried to build an anti-Russian bastion in Europe based on foreign actors, be it Vatican, Sweden, France, UK, or the US. Each time these attempts ended with Poland’s collapse and country partitions. This can happen once again. Polish efforts to militarise Eastern Europe and to attract US’s attention to the region provoke Berlin’s discontent. German diplomats even joke that if things continue developing in this way, Germans will have no choice but to agree with the Russians once again and to partition the Polish state.

Disproof

This publication is a mix of conspiracy theories and groundless generalisations aimed to discredit Poland's foreign and security policies, Germany, the West and NATO as anti-Russian belligerent actors aimed at disrupting Belarus-Russia relations and counteracting the Union State between Belarus and Russia. It is also consistent with a recurring pro-Kremlin narrative about the US presence in Europe. Furthermore, it puts forward an offensive remark to the German side alleging that Berlin may accept Poland's partition in coordination with Russia following a hypothetical NATO military actions against Russia.

Germany and Poland are both members of NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance and does not pose a threat to Russia. Its purpose is to protect its member states. Every country that joins NATO undertakes to uphold its principles and policies, and this includes the commitment that "the Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia," as reaffirmed at the Brussels Summit. For more information about NATO-Russia relations and disinformation narratives about NATO, see here and here.

NATO tries to achieve security through very aggressive actions

An agreement with Russia is in the interest of the EU and it has a strong impact on the European’s level of life. NATO also needs such an agreement with Russia as it will provide peace. At the same time, there is only talks about security, not peace. And in the case of NATO, they tend to achieve security through very aggressive actions.

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative, portraying NATO as a threat to global peace because it has an aggressive agenda. NATO exercises and military deployments are not directed against Russia – or any other country. The claim that NATO is encircling or threatening Russia is one of the myths about this organisation.

NATO regularly updates the military requirements for civilian infrastructure, at a time when there are increased challenges to security. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and amid emerging security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa in 2014, NATO leaders at the Wales Summit adopted the Readiness Action Plan, a comprehensive package of enhanced collective defence and deterrent measures designed to ensure the transatlantic alliance could respond swiftly and firmly to changes in its security environment.

Belarus plans to develop an artificial Belarusian identity

One of the infamous legal documents approved in Belarus this year was the Information security concept. The concept defines the information sovereignty, which is, in reality, an imposition of artificial Belarusian identity, opposing the Russian. It also brings up Belarusization. This all means that in the information sphere Belarus is not Russia’s ally anymore and not a part of the Union State, but a sovereign country which distances itself from Russia. Hence the concept can become the Information alienation concept.

Disproof

This is an illustrative example of a recurring pro-Kremlin narrative about the all-Russian nation and Russian world/civilization, which presents Belarusian and Ukrainian identities as artificial and unnatural in contrast to all-Russian identity. The "all-Russian nation" is an imperial Russian and Russian irredentist ideology that is a favoured pro-Kremlin narrative aimed at weakening the national identity of Belarusians and Ukrainians, as well as their sovereignty.

Belarus is a well-defined nation-state with a long history; it preserved language, literature and identity, despite foreign rule for long periods. Belarus' Information security concept, adopted in March 2019, stipulates, among other things, that "The Belarusian language along with a constitutionally upheld bilingualism, contributes to the development of the national identity of the Belarusian society and its spirituality."