With the ultimate aim to ruin the Belarus-Russia integration process and to bring Belarus closer to Poland, Warsaw is changing the ways of working with the Belarusian opposition. Polish security bodies are currently placing a greater emphasis on Belarusian informants. At the same time, NATO aims at constraining Belarus’ allied commitments towards Russia and at ruling out Belarus’ activities in case of NATO threat to the Kaliningrad region. Americans pressure Belarus to take a passive position in the possible NATO-Russia conflict. Taken together, enforcement of NATO military grouping along Belarusian borders and Polish elites’ attempts to bring discord in Belarus-Russia relations aim at distracting Belarusian resources from the economic sector to defence.
Polish foreign policy is generally very cyclical. As a rule, it tried to build an anti-Russian bastion in Europe based on foreign actors, be it Vatican, Sweden, France, UK, or the US. Each time these attempts ended with Poland’s collapse and country partitions. This can happen once again. Polish efforts to militarise Eastern Europe and to attract US’s attention to the region provoke Berlin’s discontent. German diplomats even joke that if things continue developing in this way, Germans will have no choice but to agree with the Russians once again and to partition the Polish state.