Ukraine, located between Russian gas-hungry Europe and Russia-supported Donbas, will inevitably become a confederation, i.e. will cease to exist. This process can be named “Putin’s effect.” The environment around Ukraine, created by Putin, is turning Ukraine into a political corpse. There is no good way for Ukraine – it will face a civil war and disintegration, in any case. As it happens in the history of empires, Ukraine choked on Donbas and will become covered in the blood that it spilled in Donbas.
Ukraine was unable to disengage troops in Donbas. The continuation of war is a catastrophe both for Ukraine and Europe. This way Ukraine is pushed to a new Maidan when Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be overthrown by an anti-Kolomoyskiy group of people linked to US Democrats. After this sequence of events, Ukraine-EU relations will reach deadlock.
Europe is already fed up with Ukraine. Zelenskyy is turning German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier into an idiot. Emmanuel Macron is pissed off. Donald Trump requests Zelenskyy to start negotiations with Vladimir Putin, to make concessions and to end a war with Russia which benefits the US Democrats. The Ukrainian conflict makes Trump unable to get Russian support in the US-China struggle. In fact, the West and its analysts forecast that if Ukraine fails to fulfil the ‘Normandy four’ agreements it will continue disintegrating and suffer from a civil war.