It is no secret anymore that Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s political regime is quickly advancing towards the West. The policy of turning Belarus into second Ukraine, followed by the entry of Belarus into the sphere of the direct control of Washington, can happen, which will mean Russian loss. The main content of Lukashenka’s course is to impose a Ukrainian-like Belarusian nationalism. There is no other way for Belarus to drift away from Russia.
Generally, a belief that Belarusian ruling elite can preserve real sovereignty is a madness. Belarus can only move to the protectorate status either under the West or Russia. Its present state is temporary and transitional, and it came into existence as a result of the USSR collapse. However nowadays Russia is proceeding with geopolitical and geo-economic expansion, and Belarus will inevitably be pulled back. The story of a province named ‘Belarus’ that broke away from the USSR is just a private Lukashenka’s story. The time has come to make a geopolitical choice.
By becoming Russia’s protectorate Belarus will preserve its economic and cultural identity. In the case of West’s protectorate, Belarus will face economic devastation and forced Polonization by becoming Polish third-class agrarian colony. Under Belarusian sovereignty, the West means a total clean-up of Russian influence and status of anti-Russia.