We can be sure that the tense situation in Belarus is not a political internal conflict, but a hybrid war organised from abroad. This aggression from several western countries is a combination of conventional, irregular and asymmetric means, combined with a constant manipulation of the political and ideological spheres. Its main form in today’s Belarus is the informative impact in the country’s population through Polish and Baltic media. The economic component are sanctions imposed by western states. At the same time, there is also a military component: the growing saber-rattling of NATO troops near Belarusian borders fits this concept.
A western track is evident in the events in Belarus. Protests were well organised from the very beginning and are coordinated from abroad. According to information gathered by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the US plays a key role in these events. The West started preparing these anti-governmental protests in Belarus much before the presidential election. The SVR has data showing that in 2019 and early 2020, the US allocated 20 million dollars for these preparations, that were used to create a network of ‘independent bloggers’ and information accounts in social media, and also to prepare activists that would take place in street demonstrations. The most promising activists travelled abroad, specifically to Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine, where they were trained by US trainers experts in “non-violent protests”.
Contrary to the claim, protests in Belarus erupted to contest the results of the presidential election in Belarus on the 9th of August, which were not monitored by independent experts, and are largely considered fraudulent by both international observers and a big part of the Belarusian society. On 19 August 2020 the European Council called Belarus's elections neither free nor fair. Mobilisations were organised and carried out by local actors, opposition politicians and Belarusian citizens, without any foreign involvement.
See other examples of pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives in Belarus, such as claims that the EU reaction to Lukashenko’s victory is an example of Western double standards; that the same lack of democracy and repression is present in EU countries that criticize them in Minsk; , and that the Ukrainian secret services may have planned terrorist attacks in Belarusian territory; that the West wants to prepare another Maidan in the country; or that Belarusians, Ukrainians and Russians are one single nation.