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Disinfo: Belarus will either become part of the Russian World or a limitrophe country with reduced territory under the West

Summary

Belarus’s historical horizon is painted in orange. Today a Ukrainian scenario for Belarus is more real than ever. David Cramer’s appearance on the Belarusian direction is a sign of it. This person organised an orange revolution in Ukraine. It seems that Belarus is chosen as the new goal for American political actions aimed at the destruction of the Russian World.

If Belarus goes out of the Russian World, it would follow the path of destruction of its authenticity and will lose the values of its history and culture. It will exist as a limitrophe with a declining population and probably within the reduced territory. Alternatively, if Belarus completely returns to the Russian World it will preserve its cultural uniqueness and get a chance for sustainable development.

Russia does not have a moral right to leave Belarus face-to-face with its main geopolitical adversary. Each and any Western government and NGO should realise that their destructive activities against Belarus constitute  aggression also against Russia. Russia should defend any piece of the Russian World. The West should realise that one small Belarusian town is much more important for Russian society than a dozen European capitals. Any invasion into the Russian World, be it overt or covert, will have catastrophic consequences for the aggressor.

Disproof

This is a conspiracy theory consistent with recurring disinformation narratives about the all-Russian nation and Russian world/civilisation, Western attempts to organise a colour revolution in Belarus and to disrupt Belarusian-Russian relations.

The article puts forward a false dilemma about the direction of Belarus' political development (union with Russia vs. an unavoidable degradation). This false dilemma was repeatedly promoted in earlier disinformation cases here, here, and here.

See earlier disinformation cases alleging that the Union State of Belarus and Russia saves post-Soviet countries from pro-fascist West, that the West destroyed the USSR and is currently targeting the Union State between Belarus and Russia, and that the Union State of Belarus and Russia will prevent Belarus' colonisation by the US or Europe.

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publication/media

Teleskop (Archived)
Vitbich (Archived)
  • Reported in: Issue 197
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 11/05/2020
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Russia, Belarus
  • Keywords: Colour revolutions, Russian world

Disclaimer

Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Disproof

Disinformation with no evidence given. This appears to be an attempt to scare Ukrainians and does not correspond with reality. Yes, Ukraine's migrant workers have returned home due to the coronavirus epidemic. However, the inference they will be sent to eastern Ukraine is just fiction.

Regarding the military, reserve soldiers in Ukraine are involved in training sessions every year, at a time convenient for them and their employers, during active practical training activities (training, coaching, combat shooting) of their units. The total duration of training is up to 30 days a year. This period can be extended to 3 months, but not to 6 months.

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May 12, 2020
Disproof

A recurring pro-Kremlin historical revisionist narrative trying to absolve the USSR of any responsibility in the instigation of WWII by denying its occupation of Poland. It is part of the ongoing disinformation attack on Poland.

Poland was invaded by both Nazi and Soviet forces at the onset of WWII. The invasion was coordinated on the basis of the the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which was accompanied by a secret supplementary protocol on the delimitation of areas of mutual interest in Eastern Europe. A separate provision of the protocol entitled the Nazi Germany and the USSR to jointly conduct a "territorial-political reorganisation" of Poland, and to determine "whether it is in the (signatories') mutual interest to preserve the independent Polish State."

Belarusian opposition tried to disrupt the Victory Day military parade with the help of US money

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May 12, 2020
Disproof

These are unfounded claims intended to discredit the US / West and the Belarusian opposition through baseless accusations of bad intentions towards the Victory Day military parade. This story is consistent with pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the West's continuous attempts to undermine Belarusian society through a subservient Belarusian opposition and Western-funded NGOs.

There is no proof that the US paid the Belarusian opposition to disrupt the parade or that the opposition paid people not to attend the public event. In late March 2020, an online petition was created asking Belarus' Ministries of Health and Defence to cancel the Victory Day military parade to mitigate the coronavirus epidemic and to finance hospitals instead. Over 7,000 citizens signed the petition by March 31. The Ministry of Defence's response read that the epidemiological situation allowed for the parade to go ahead. The WHO recommended that the Belarusian authorities cancel the parade and expressed concern about its organisation amid the epidemic.