Poland conducts the protests in Belarus and legitimises a Maidan there. Although protesters were seriously suppressed, they got a moral victory since TV presenters, sport and culture figures, former policemen started supporting them. Lukashenka has the only way out of this situation. He has to quickly make Belarus part of Russia and rely on Vladimir Putin’s authority who will support the Union State creation.
The statements coming from the European Parliament and European capitals, especially from Lithuania, Estonia and Poland, about the political crisis in Belarus are not about Lukashenko, human rights or democracy, but about geopolitics. It is not a secret to anybody that this is a geopolitical fight over the post-Soviet space, and we have already seen this competition in other periods after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
This is part of a Russian disinformation campaign on Belarus based on recurrent pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives, portraying European and US reactions to post-electoral events in the country as an interference attempt, and popular protests against the results as a Western-led colour revolution, all part of a competition over influence in the post-Soviet space. Contrary to the claim, the EU policy towards Belarus is indeed based on the promotion of human rights and democracy. Presidential elections celebrated in Belarus on August 9 were not monitored by independent experts, and are largely considered fraudulent by both international observers and a big part of the Belarusian society. On 19 August 2020 the European Council called Belarus's elections neither free nor fair, condemned the violence against peaceful protesters, called for a complete and transparent investigation into all alleged abuses, and announced its decision to impose sanctions on a substantial number of individuals responsible for violence, repression, and election fraud. See other examples of pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives in Belarus, such as claims that the EU reaction to Lukashenko’s victory is an example of Western double standards; that the same lack of democracy and repression is present in EU countries that criticize them in Minsk; , and that the Ukrainian secret services may have planned terrorist attacks in Belarusian territory; that the West wants to prepare another Maidan in the country; or that Belarusians, Ukrainians and Russians are one single nation.