Poland may end up being partitioned between Germany and Russia

Summary

With the ultimate aim to ruin the Belarus-Russia integration process and to bring Belarus closer to Poland, Warsaw is changing the ways of working with the Belarusian opposition. Polish security bodies are currently placing a greater emphasis on Belarusian informants. At the same time, NATO aims at constraining Belarus’ allied commitments towards Russia and at ruling out Belarus’ activities in case of NATO threat to the Kaliningrad region. Americans pressure Belarus to take a passive position in the possible NATO-Russia conflict. Taken together, enforcement of NATO military grouping along Belarusian borders and Polish elites’ attempts to bring discord in Belarus-Russia relations aim at distracting Belarusian resources from the economic sector to defence.

Polish foreign policy is generally very cyclical. As a rule, it tried to build an anti-Russian bastion in Europe based on foreign actors, be it Vatican, Sweden, France, UK, or the US. Each time these attempts ended with Poland’s collapse and country partitions. This can happen once again. Polish efforts to militarise Eastern Europe and to attract US’s attention to the region provoke Berlin’s discontent. German diplomats even joke that if things continue developing in this way, Germans will have no choice but to agree with the Russians once again and to partition the Polish state.

Disproof

This publication is a mix of conspiracy theories and groundless generalisations aimed to discredit Poland's foreign and security policies, Germany, the West and NATO as anti-Russian belligerent actors aimed at disrupting Belarus-Russia relations and counteracting the Union State between Belarus and Russia. It is also consistent with a recurring pro-Kremlin narrative about the US presence in Europe. Furthermore, it puts forward an offensive remark to the German side alleging that Berlin may accept Poland's partition in coordination with Russia following a hypothetical NATO military actions against Russia.

Germany and Poland are both members of NATO. NATO is a defensive alliance and does not pose a threat to Russia. Its purpose is to protect its member states. Every country that joins NATO undertakes to uphold its principles and policies, and this includes the commitment that "the Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia," as reaffirmed at the Brussels Summit. For more information about NATO-Russia relations and disinformation narratives about NATO, see here and here.

See earlier disinformation cases alleging that Poland’s policy towards Russia is based entirely on US support, that Poland is an “extension” of the United States in Europe, that Poland wants to divide Europe into two camps to strengthen its leadership within Europe, and that Poland and the Baltic countries are the Western world’s jackals who can produce a global catastrophe.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 173
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 01/11/2019
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Sweden, Russia, US, Poland, Vatican, UK, Belarus, Germany, France
  • Keywords: Union State of Belarus and Russia, Kaliningrad, Military, Anti-Russian, Imperialism/colonialism, Military exercise, US presence in Europe, NATO, Conspiracy
  • Outlet: Imhoclub.by, Vitbich.org
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NATO tries to achieve security through very aggressive actions

An agreement with Russia is in the interest of the EU and it has a strong impact on the European’s level of life. NATO also needs such an agreement with Russia as it will provide peace. At the same time, there is only talks about security, not peace. And in the case of NATO, they tend to achieve security through very aggressive actions.

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative, portraying NATO as a threat to global peace because it has an aggressive agenda. NATO exercises and military deployments are not directed against Russia – or any other country. The claim that NATO is encircling or threatening Russia is one of the myths about this organisation.

NATO regularly updates the military requirements for civilian infrastructure, at a time when there are increased challenges to security. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and amid emerging security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa in 2014, NATO leaders at the Wales Summit adopted the Readiness Action Plan, a comprehensive package of enhanced collective defence and deterrent measures designed to ensure the transatlantic alliance could respond swiftly and firmly to changes in its security environment.

Belarus plans to develop an artificial Belarusian identity

One of the infamous legal documents approved in Belarus this year was the Information security concept. The concept defines the information sovereignty, which is, in reality, an imposition of artificial Belarusian identity, opposing the Russian. It also brings up Belarusization. This all means that in the information sphere Belarus is not Russia’s ally anymore and not a part of the Union State, but a sovereign country which distances itself from Russia. Hence the concept can become the Information alienation concept.

Disproof

This is an illustrative example of a recurring pro-Kremlin narrative about the all-Russian nation and Russian world/civilization, which presents Belarusian and Ukrainian identities as artificial and unnatural in contrast to all-Russian identity. The "all-Russian nation" is an imperial Russian and Russian irredentist ideology that is a favoured pro-Kremlin narrative aimed at weakening the national identity of Belarusians and Ukrainians, as well as their sovereignty.

Belarus is a well-defined nation-state with a long history; it preserved language, literature and identity, despite foreign rule for long periods. Belarus' Information security concept, adopted in March 2019, stipulates, among other things, that "The Belarusian language along with a constitutionally upheld bilingualism, contributes to the development of the national identity of the Belarusian society and its spirituality."

White Helmets preparing new chemical provocations in Syria

According to information made available by the Syrian government, the White Helmets and terrorists are jointly preparing new chemical provocations in Syria.

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin conspiracy theory painting the White Helmets as terrorists and shifting blame for chemical attacks in Syria away from the Assad regime.

The White Helmets are a staple topic of pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives on the Syrian civil war, having already been accused of numerous other provocations and war crimes including organ trafficking; aiding terrorist organizations; staging and/or perpetrating chemical attacks, sometimes with the help of Western intelligence agencies. A majority of these claims are unburdened by evidence and often rely on meaningless formulations such as "according to information provided by X," "there are reasons to assume," and so forth.