International think-tanks including the Chatham House elaborate plans to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations

Summary

One probable future scenario envisages the Eastern European region in the 21st century as the main bone of contention between the key global actors. Given this, the allied relations between Belarus and Russia can become an important factor for stabilisation in Eastern Europe. For this reason, a number of international think-tanks, which have no interest in a stable Eastern Europe, elaborate plans to disrupt integration between the two countries. These plans envisage the following:

The change of domestic and foreign policies of Belarus, its turn in foreign policy towards the West;
Inadequate response by Russia which will start counteracting Western influence along the Ukrainian scenario by forceful means;
Formation of a broad anti-Russian coalition of Eastern European countries, followed by the displacement of the Russian presence in Eastern Europe;
Increasing chaos and conflicting relations stemming from the confrontation with Russia;
Using the chaos in Eastern Europe as a tool to disrupt trade relations between China and Western Europe or taking them under US control.

One example is the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House). In November 2018, it published a report about three Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) where Belarus-Russia relations were given significant attention.

Disproof

This is a conspiracy consistent with repetitive pro-Kremlin narratives about the West's attempts to disrupt Belarusian-Russian relations, to destabilise Belarus through a colour revolution or otherwise, and the West's far-fetching anti-Russian activities.

The mentioned Chatham House report analyses ways to increase societal resilience in Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova in response to threats emanating from Russia, which deploys a set of tools aimed at weakening their sovereignty.

See earlier disinformation cases alleging that Chatham House wants to bring Alyaksandr Lukashenka down after the period of "soft Belarusification", that the Western media work against Belarusian-Russian relations, and that Belarus has become an epicentre of the West's struggle over Eastern Europe.

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Reported in: Issue 152
DATE OF PUBLICATION: 07/05/2019
Language/target audience: Belarus
Country: China, Russia, The West, Belarus, US
Keywords: Encircling Russia, Anti-Russian, US presence in Europe, Conspiracy
Outlet: Imhoclub, https://imhoclub.by/

The US is sending a hospital ship to the Caribbean as preparation for an intervention in Venezuela

The decision to send US Navy hospital ship USNS Comfort to the Caribbean is part of the preparations for a military intervention in Venezuela against the government of Nicolas Maduro.

May 28, 2019

Disproof

There is no evidence to support the claim that this is part of a wider deployment for a military intervention even if the decision to send the hospital ship near Venezuela has been criticised for alleged contributing to a rise in tensions.

The USNS Comfort carries no weapons, has a clearly defined status as a non-combatant vessel and its crew are mostly composed of navy specialists in non-fighting roles and civilians. Similar allegations were made when the same ship was sent to the Colombian coast to treat Venezuelan refugees last November.

The EU is a neocolonial project

The EU is an undemocratic neocolonial project.

We think that the undemocratic project of the European Union (EU) is losing its legitimacy. (…) The resistance of oppressed countries held in neocolonial status is often called “nationalism” by the oppressors to discredit this resistance.

The EU is a construction of banks and corporations that secures their domination and profits. (…) Protests against it are suppressed by the comprehensive dismantling of democratic rights as well as new instruments of surveillance and repression.

May 28, 2019

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative on the undemocratic EU and on the failed European values.

The EU is not neocolonial, but a democratic Union of 28 Member States. The unique feature of the EU is that, although the Member States all remain sovereign and independent states, they have decided to pool some of their 'sovereignty' in areas where it makes sense to work together.

Ukraine is one of the possible perpetrators of the attack on the MH17

Ukraine’s responsibility for the downing of the MH17 Boeing five years ago over eastern Ukraine can not be ruled out.

The Boeing 777 of Malaysia Airlines crashed on 17 July 2014 in the fiercely contested East Ukrainian Donetsk region. The Ukrainian army and armed government opponents fought fierce battles in the region. The government in Kyiv and the people’s militias of the unrecognised Republic of Donetsk accused each other of shooting down the jet.

Even before the investigation began, many Kyiv and Western politicians had blamed the East Ukrainian people’s militias for the alleged shooting and accused Russia of an involvement in the shooting down.

May 28, 2019

Disproof

Conspiracy theory that the Ukrainian side was involved in the shooting down of MH17, with no evidence provided. An example on the many competing and occasionally contradictory stories promulgated by Russian state-controlled media on MH17. The Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team has concluded that flight MH17 was shot down on 17 July 2014 by a missile of the 9M38 series, launched by a BUK-TELAR, from farmland in the vicinity of Pervomaiskiy (or: Pervomaiskyi). At that time, the area was controlled by pro-Russian fighters. The BUK-TELAR was brought in from the territory of the Russian Federation and subsequently, after having shot down flight MH17, was taken back to the Russian Federation.

On 24 May 2018, JIT stated that the BUK-TELAR that was used to down MH17 originates from the 53rd Anti Aircraft Missile brigade, a unit of the Russian army from Kursk in the Russian Federation. The JIT reached this conclusion after extensive comparative research. Several images of the BUK-TELAR with which MH17 was downed are available. Analysis of these produces a number of characteristics. The combination of these is so special that that can be considered as a fingerprint. This fingerprint has been compared with numerous images of BUK-TELARS, both Ukrainian and Russian ones. The only BUK-TELAR on which this combination of characteristics was also found, is a BUK-TELAR that was recorded several times when it joined a convoy of the 53rd brigade on 23 – 25 June 2014.

Furthermore, a joint international open source investigation led by Bellingcat has identified conclusively that the person of interest known as ‘Andrey Ivanovich’ or ‘Orion’ whose identity is sought by the Joint Investigating Team in connection with the criminal investigation into the downing of MH17, is in fact Russian citizen Oleg Vladimirovich Ivannikov. Ivannikov was an officer of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Ministry of Defence (GRU), and served in that function until at least as late as September 2017. During his undercover deployment to LNR, he coordinated and supervised the military activities of Russian militants, pro-Russian separatists and “private army” contingents from the Wagner group. Ivannikov also supervised the procurement and transport of weapons across the Russia Ukraine border. He held these functions at the time of the downing of MH17.