International think-tanks including the Chatham House elaborate plans to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations

One probable future scenario envisages the Eastern European region in the 21st century as the main bone of contention between the key global actors. Given this, the allied relations between Belarus and Russia can become an important factor for stabilisation in Eastern Europe. For this reason, a number of international think-tanks, which have no interest in a stable Eastern Europe, elaborate plans to disrupt integration between the two countries. These plans envisage the following:

• The change of domestic and foreign policies of Belarus, its turn in foreign policy towards the West;
• Inadequate response by Russia which will start counteracting Western influence along the Ukrainian scenario by forceful means;
• Formation of a broad anti-Russian coalition of Eastern European countries, followed by the displacement of the Russian presence in Eastern Europe;
• Increasing chaos and conflicting relations stemming from the confrontation with Russia;
• Using the chaos in Eastern Europe as a tool to disrupt trade relations between China and Western Europe or taking them under US control.

One example is the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House). In November 2018, it published a report about three Eastern European countries (Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine) where Belarus-Russia relations were given significant attention.