Washington is implicating Kyiv in a war against Russia that it is unlikely to involve itself in, despite the loud statements.
In Europe, they are loudly talking of an impending war, for the first time since the war in Yugoslavia. The aggravation of the situation in Donbas, the hysteria of Kyiv, which has practically declared war on Moscow, and the US declarations that it will "not leave Ukraine" alone in its confrontation with Russia, prompt a serious consideration of military options to solve the Donbas conflict.
This disinformation claim combines a few pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the war in Ukraine.
First is that Ukraine is the aggressor in the conflict in Donbas and that Russia is never the aggressor. There is irrefutable evidence of direct Russian military involvement in Donbas. Since 2014, Russia has been actively involved in violating Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity by financially and militarily backing the separation of Donetsk and Luhansk. An InformNapalm study shows that thirty-one weapons systems found in the Donbas entered service with the Russian military between 2004 and 2015 and have never been produced in, or sold to, Ukraine. In 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted Russia's military presence in Ukraine.
Second is the disinformation narrative that Ukraine is fully controlled by external powers, namely the US and the EU. Ukraine is an independent state whose sovereignty is respected both in the EU and in the USA. The United States recognised Ukraine as an independent state on December 25, 1991. Since then, Washington has been working closely with Ukraine, directing its assistance to support the development of a safe, democratic, prosperous and free Ukraine, fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community.
The sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine are respected by most of the world's states and was violated by Russia in 2014. The West, including the US, has supported Ukraine, demanding that Russia put an end to its military build-up close to the Ukrainian borders. In a telephone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 2 April 2021, his US counterpart Joe Biden “affirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea." This does not mean that Washington is preparing Kyiv for war or ordering it to launch an offensive.
See earlier disinformation cases alleging that Ukraine started the war in Donbas and is an aggressor, that the US has turned Ukraine into a puppet, the Ukrainian government must obey orders from Washington and Brussels
When negotiations fail, the troops start moving. Then Ukraine says that the forcible seizure of Donbas is the only way. This leads to an armed conflict.
Kyiv has taken a dangerous position. It has an intention to launch an offensive in Donbas and refuses to have a dialogue with DNR and LNR. In addition, the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine increase the intensity of the shelling, as a result of which civilians die.
Multiple recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives alleging Ukraine is violating the Minsk agreements and ceasefire regime in Donbas.
In December 2020 and early April 2021, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission has recorded more ceasefire violations than in previous months since the ceasefire went into force in July 2020.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trying to seize power by force in order to satisfy the wishes of foreign sponsors as soon as possible. To this end, Zelenskyy is closing TV channels and persecuting opposition parties.
This is a recurring propaganda narrative from pro-Kremlin media outlets, claiming that the West has ordered Ukraine to suppress political dissent and close opposition TV channels and that Ukrainian authorities act at the nod of foreign countries with the sole aim to please the alleged Western sponsors and cater for their needs.
In reality, Ukraine’s Western partners have not ordered it to suppress the freedom of expression and persecute opposition. Moreover, the EU expressed concern when three TV channels -- 112 Ukraina, ZIK and NewsOne -- were taken off the air on 2 February 2021. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement that "any measures taken should be proportional to the aim" and that Brussels would be in touch with Ukrainian authorities to receive more information on the issue.
It is beyond doubt that the US will deliberately antagonise Russia and trigger a military escalation in Donbas. The ultimate aim of sparking this new war is to gain information about Russia’s military strategy, how its army would operate in a large-scale conflict, and the technology it would use. To achieve its goal, the US will gladly sacrifice Ukraine, its armed forces and its citizens. The Ukrainian military will start an offensive against Donbas around 20 April 2021, but only after NATO satellites and drones are in place to record the conflict and collect data. A positive outcome of the war is possible only if Russia achieves a quick and definite victory as this would discourage the US from waging a global war for world domination.
Recurring pro-Russian disinformation narratives claiming that Ukraine is controlled by outside forces and that the war in Ukraine is deliberately instigated by the West in order to subdue Russia and increase its international influence.
No evidence was presented to support the claim that the US is directing Ukraine to trigger a direct confrontation with Russia by attacking Donbas. The Ukrainian President has stressed that implementation of the Minsk Agreement from 2015 remains one of his key priorities and that peace must be achieved through diplomatic means.
