Disinfo: Kyiv might launch a military “adventure” in Donbas, exploiting the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh

Summary

Russia is pushing for a diplomatic solution in Nagorno-Karabakh. Kyiv assumes that Russia would not stand up for the Donetsk and Luhansk republics or might react too late. This assumption could lead the Ukrainians to launce an attack soon. Ukrainian propagandist Alexander Kushnar has already advocated for an “Azeri-style” offensive to take the republics in the Donbas and even Crimea.

Disproof

A recurring pro-Kremlin narrative on Ukraine trying to exploit the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to make gains in the Donbas.

There is no link between the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the war in Ukraine. The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is a continuation of the decades-old conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, while the war in Eastern Ukraine is a well-documented act of ongoing aggression by Russian armed forces, since February 2014.

In Donbas, a truce was established in July 2020. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated multiple times that the achievement of a full, comprehensive, and long-lasting ceasefire is one of the key priorities of the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine did express support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, but called for a peaceful solution and said it supports the efforts of Co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - which includes the Russian Federation.

Based on the daily reports of the OSCE Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, the number of ceasefire violations in the Donbas did not increase meaningfully after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict escalated. Thus, it cannot be proven that Ukraine, as an answer to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, increased pressure on the region.

Since the publication of the article by News Front, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia signed a peace deal.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 219
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 04/11/2020
  • Language/target audience: Hungarian
  • Country: Azerbaijan, Russia, Ukraine
  • Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh, War in Ukraine, Donbas

Disclaimer

Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Navalny’s wife informed the doctors that her husband had restricted his diet and that for 3-5 days he suffered from a feeling of discomfort after meals. His wife also speculated that the discomfort may have been caused by the patient’s diet aimed at losing weight.

The narrative further claims that doctors, after repeated chemical and toxicological studies, diagnosed disorders of carbohydrate metabolism (Primary diagnosis); chronic pancreatitis with dysfunction of the exocrine and endocrine glands, complications (secondary diagnosis).

Disproof

Recurring disinformation message on the Alexei Navalny poisoning.

The wife of Alexei Navalny, Yulia Navalnaya denied all the allegations of the Russian Interior Ministry on 7 November: "don't believe a single word of it". One purpose of this message is to mock the appearance of the opponent, that he would be to fat and have to restrict his alimentation, however Alexei Navalny said in one interview that the doctors of Charite hospital told him one of the factors that made him survive was his good physical form because he was jogging and swimming regularly and having a balanced alimentation.

The US election is rigged

Judging by the situation in the United States, you have to elect in the following way:

– for a whole year bombard the population with polls far from reality, where the Democratic candidate simply knocks outs his competitor;

– send out an unknown number of ballots by mail, so that later they can be counted uncontrollably;

– do not allow OSCE observers to visit some polling stations;

– in states where the current President was confidently leading, suddenly show that 100% of the ballots that arrived by mail are votes for his competitor;

– register deceased voters and indicate a higher number of voters than the actual number of citizens eligible for voting.

Disproof

Although the article is presented as an opinion, it summarises the variety of false and already debunked claims presenting them as objective information.

Thus, the "dead people's voting", claimed on social media and then in Russian State media, is debunked by Michigan's State Department. The claim about the indication of "a higher number of voters than the actual number of citizens eligible for voting" came from a misinterpretation when the number of voters in 2020 was mixed up with a number of voters of 2018 interim Congress election.

There was widespread fraud at the 2020 US Presidential election

Voter turnout during the election beat not just historical, but even mathematical records. Turnout in Florida, Wisconsin, and Nevada reached 102%, 101%, and 125% respectively.

In Detroit, the view of the vote-counting process was obstructed with cardboard screens.

In Wisconsin, the number of votes cast exceeded the number of the state’s residents by 100,000.

Disproof

The story is part of an emerging pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative seeking to delegitimise the conduct and results of the 2020 US Presidential election.

The allegation that turnout exceeded 100% in multiple states is false, and is likely based on a widely shared social media post. The post includes a table which purportedly demonstrates impossibly high turnout in eight different states, and thus suggests that election results in those states were obtained fraudulently. However, the voter registration numbers listed in the table are based on outdated statistics from the US Census Bureau, whereas the "Projected Votes" column cites 2020 election data. See further debunking of this claim by AFP and Snopes.