The US would need a person completely dependent on CIA as the head of Belarus. He would need to have double citizenship, an English accent and thesis about the methods of US colonial governance in Eastern Europe defended at the Yale University. The current foreign minister Uladzimir Makey, although pro-Western, will only satisfy the West as a transitional figure. After the US Department of Commerce recognises Belarus as a market economy, it will soon join the WTO and sign a free trade agreement with the EU. The opening of Belarusian markets will be accompanied by filling legislative and executive branches of power with radical pro-Western and Russophobic forces. They would provide a political cover for the revolution.
After political and judicial systems are placed under West’s control, the public sector will become insolvent and the most important dozen of enterprises will be privatised by American transnational companies. The agricultural sector will be shut down, the IT sector will die, just as other economy branches including machine building. Massive unemployment and economic collapse will provoke mass emigration, while social protests will be oppressed by radicals which are currently trained in Polish and Baltic training camps. IMF-designed shock therapy would mean a colour revolution implemented through soft power. It will result in complete Belarus’ colonization by the West, foremost by the US but with the participation of Poland, Germany and Austria. Just as Ukraine, Belarus will come under external control and a puppet regime will be established. All economic policies, including negative ones, will pursue the aim to displace any Russian influence in Belarus.
This gloomy scenario is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about West's attempts to stage a colour revolution in Belarus, to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations, and about Belarus' future being possible only in union with Russia. It is also consistent with a propagandistic narrative about US-controlled Ukraine and Ukraine as a puppet state. Furthermore, it puts forward groundless claim that Belarusian radicals are trained in Polish and Baltic state's training camps to suppress social unrest resulted from the hypothetical pro-Western course.
See earlier disinformation cases alleging that Poland is preparing Euromaidan scenario for Belarus, that Belarus will turn into anti-Russia in case it does not deepen integration with Russia, that the West's only interest in Belarus is to make it anti-Russian, and that the US plans to turn Belarus into its colony, a coup and foreign military invasion may happen.