For years, Russia has been the only guarantor of Armenian statehood and the only force capable to rescue it in the event of a full-scale Azerbaijani-Turkish attack. Nonetheless, the Armenian leadership did pretty well in undermining its strategic partnership with its neighbor.
The escalated Nagorno-Karabakh conflict clearly creates problems for Russia and serves the US national interests. It seems that third parties want to drag Russia in a big war in the Caucasus and thereby divert its efforts from Belarus, Syria, Nord Stream II and other geopolitical issues. Consciously or not, Azerbaijan and Armenia are harming Russian interests and destroying CIS and CSTO security systems. This may well be the result of comprehensive military and political combination rather then mere coincidence.
A number of planned armed conflicts of average intensity in the Caucasus and other regions manifest the US’s desire to prevail in economic and military spheres in the vicinity of the Russian border. The US does not care about the population of CIS countries, whereas Russia will have to deal with such local conflicts, therefore less Russian resources will remain to compete with Washington in other parts of the world.
This is conspiracy theory hinting that the recent escalation of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the result of deliberate US actions aimed at harming Russia and its interests. It therefore corresponds to recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the belligerent and hostile US and West against Russia and fits well into the disinformation narrative that presents virtually all protests, civil uprisings or local conflicts as a consequence of the West's intentional actions.
The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is a continuation of the decades-old conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is reported that nearly 100 people, including civilians, have died as of 29 September 2020. On 27 September, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell made a statement calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, de-escalation and for strict observance of the ceasefire.
As we explained in our past analysis, the image of a belligerent West which allegedly provokes protests and local conflicts in Russia's vicinity manufactures a fictional adversary that provides convenient cover for Moscow to justify its illicit activities on the grounds of “defence” and self-preservation.
See earlier disinformation cases alleging that the US is interfering in Hong Kong by supporting the ongoing protests, that the US military in Romania is holding Moldova hostage and using Poland to finance its strategic interests in the region, and that Washington is aiming to sell the Baltic states to Russia.