The Baltic States and Poland are blowing Belarus up from the inside. The West loudly reproaches Russia for “interfering in the affairs of Belarus” – and this is at the very moment a number of Western countries brazenly put pressure on Belarusian society and the state.
Vilnius faces two challenges. Firstly, position themselves as the main fighters against the Russian world (of which Lukashenka is considered a part, as well as the way the Belarusian president communicates with his people). Secondly, to actively make money on this positioning – given the deplorable state of the Lithuanian economy, the country really needs money. Warsaw needs an obedient (or better yet, a puppet) regime in Minsk to create an image of Poland as a regional power, thereby increasing its influence and opportunities within the European Union.
This is part of a Russian disinformation campaign about Belarus based on recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives alleging that the West is destabilising the situation in Minsk and provoking military actions on the Belarusian borders.
There is no evidence that that the West, nor Poland and Lithuania in particular, are trying to destabilise the situation in Belarus. Poland and Lithuania support the independence and territorial integrity of Belarus and they do not have any territorial claims against their neighbour.