Disinfo: Poland and the Baltic countries are the Western world's jackals who can produce a global catastrophe

Summary

The stationing of the US military in Lithuania and preparations for NATO military exercises is partly a response to integration processes between Russia and Belarus. This is a way to pressure Belarusian elites, to scare them, and to put forward the following message: this is not your war, you better raise a white flag and surrender. Lithuanians, Latvians, and Poles are again playing the role of the Western world’s jackals and could thus again trigger a catastrophe for the whole of humankind.

Disproof

This claim is a conspiracy theory aimed at discrediting Poland and the Baltic states and the West as a whole. It is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin narratives about alleged Western aggression and anti-Russian activities, attempts to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations and to counteract the Union State between Belarus and Russia. NATO is a defensive alliance and does not pose a threat to Russia. Its purpose is to protect its member states. Every country that joins NATO undertakes to uphold its principles and policies, and this includes the commitment that "the Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia," as reaffirmed at the Brussels Summit. For more information about NATO-Russia relations and disinformation narratives about NATO, see here and here. See earlier disinformation cases alleging that the West is targeting the Union State between Belarus and Russia and that Poland is to blame for being attacked by Stalin in 1939.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 171
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 04/11/2019
  • Outlet language(s) Russian
  • Countries and/or Regions discussed in the disinformation: Poland, Belarus, Baltic states, Russia
  • Keywords: Union State of Belarus and Russia, West, Military exercise, Anti-Russian, WWIII, Conspiracy theory, NATO
see more

Belarus faces either normal development under Russia or a forced Polonization and economic devastation

It is no secret anymore that Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s political regime is quickly advancing towards the West. The policy of turning Belarus into second Ukraine, followed by the entry of Belarus into the sphere of the direct control of Washington, can happen, which will mean Russian loss. The main content of Lukashenka’s course is to impose a Ukrainian-like Belarusian nationalism. There is no other way for Belarus to drift away from Russia. Generally, a belief that Belarusian ruling elite can preserve real sovereignty is a madness. Belarus can only move to the protectorate status either under the West or Russia. Its present state is temporary and transitional, and it came into existence as a result of the USSR collapse. However nowadays Russia is proceeding with geopolitical and geo-economic expansion, and Belarus will inevitably be pulled back. The story of a province named ‘Belarus’ that broke away from the USSR is just a private Lukashenka’s story. The time has come to make a geopolitical choice. By becoming Russia’s protectorate Belarus will preserve its economic and cultural identity. In the case of West’s protectorate, Belarus will face economic devastation and forced Polonization by becoming Polish third-class agrarian colony. Under Belarusian sovereignty, the West means a total clean-up of Russian influence and status of anti-Russia.

Disproof

This message is based on ungrounded claims and a false dilemma about the direction of Belarus's political development. It is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin narratives about US-controlled Ukraine and Ukraine as a puppet state, about Western aggressiveness towards Belarus and Russia and Polish aggressive intentions in particular, and about Western attempts to disrupt Belarusian-Russian relations. By naming Belarus a "breakaway USSR's province" the publication is also aimed at discrediting and undermining the Belarusian statehood. See earlier disinformation cases alleging that Poland is preparing Euromaidan scenario for Belarus, that Belarus will turn into anti-Russia in case it does not deepen integration with Russia, that the West's only interest in Belarus is to make it anti-Russian, and putting forward a ridiculous false dilemma, claiming that the only possible scenario for Ukraine and Belarus to prevent their descent into Nazism through the politicisation of national clothes is to become a Russian western federal area.

The EU is fed up with Ukraine, it invariably faces a civil war and complete disintegration

Ukraine, located between Russian gas-hungry Europe and Russia-supported Donbas, will inevitably become a confederation, i.e. will cease to exist. This process can be named “Putin’s effect.” The environment around Ukraine, created by Putin, is turning Ukraine into a political corpse. There is no good way for Ukraine – it will face a civil war and disintegration, in any case. As it happens in the history of empires, Ukraine choked on Donbas and will become covered in the blood that it spilled in Donbas. Ukraine was unable to disengage troops in Donbas. The continuation of war is a catastrophe both for Ukraine and Europe. This way Ukraine is pushed to a new Maidan when Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be overthrown by an anti-Kolomoyskiy group of people linked to US Democrats. After this sequence of events, Ukraine-EU relations will reach deadlock. Europe is already fed up with Ukraine. Zelenskyy is turning German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier into an idiot. Emmanuel Macron is pissed off. Donald Trump requests Zelenskyy to start negotiations with Vladimir Putin, to make concessions and to end a war with Russia which benefits the US Democrats. The Ukrainian conflict makes Trump unable to get Russian support in the US-China struggle. In fact, the West and its analysts forecast that if Ukraine fails to fulfil the ‘Normandy four’ agreements it will continue disintegrating and suffer from a civil war.

Disproof

This publication represents a mix of conspiracies and groundless allegations aimed to discredit Ukraine, claiming that the country is resigned to a bleak future, civil war, and imminent collapse. It is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin narratives about Ukraine's disintegration and imminent collapse and war in Ukraine. It also gives a distorted view on the war in Ukraine, presenting Ukraine as imperialistic and the aggressior state towards Donbas, without mentioning the Russia-backed armed formations which violated Ukraine's territorial integrity. The war in eastern Ukraine is an act of aggression by the Russian armed forces, ongoing since February 2014. See earlier disinformation cases alleging that Ukraine will disintegrate and fall prey to territorial claims of EU member states, that Ukraine is a failed state and will be split up, and that Ukraine will either be part of a Russian civilisation, or a decaying anti-Russia emanating terrorist threats.

After Brexit, the EU will do its utmost to contribute to the breakup of Great Britain

After Brexit, despite assurances of friendship, the EU will do its utmost to contribute to the breakup of Great Britain: the separation of Scotland and the entry of Northern Ireland into Ireland.

Disproof

The story advances a recurring pro-Kremlin narrative painting the EU as an anti-national superstate bent on depriving its individual members of sovereignty and identity. The EU and UK have mutual interest in ensuring there is no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. For the EU, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is an essential part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. The EU's timeline and its mandate on the matter can be seen here. 'Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s Chief Negotiator, at the Special Meeting of the European Council (Article 50), 25 November 2018 stated "We have negotiated with the UK, never against the UK. This deal is a necessary step to build trust between the UK and the EU. We need to build, in the next phase, an unprecedented and ambitious partnership. The UK will remain our friend, our partner and our ally."

Read similar cases alleging that the EU does not care what will happen with the Irish border in Brexit negotiations.