It is no secret anymore that Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s political regime is quickly advancing towards the West. The policy of turning Belarus into second Ukraine, followed by the entry of Belarus into the sphere of the direct control of Washington, can happen, which will mean Russian loss. The main content of Lukashenka’s course is to impose a Ukrainian-like Belarusian nationalism. There is no other way for Belarus to drift away from Russia. Generally, a belief that Belarusian ruling elite can preserve real sovereignty is a madness. Belarus can only move to the protectorate status either under the West or Russia. Its present state is temporary and transitional, and it came into existence as a result of the USSR collapse. However nowadays Russia is proceeding with geopolitical and geo-economic expansion, and Belarus will inevitably be pulled back. The story of a province named ‘Belarus’ that broke away from the USSR is just a private Lukashenka’s story. The time has come to make a geopolitical choice. By becoming Russia’s protectorate Belarus will preserve its economic and cultural identity. In the case of West’s protectorate, Belarus will face economic devastation and forced Polonization by becoming Polish third-class agrarian colony. Under Belarusian sovereignty, the West means a total clean-up of Russian influence and status of anti-Russia.
The stationing of the US military in Lithuania and preparations for NATO military exercises is partly a response to integration processes between Russia and Belarus. This is a way to pressure Belarusian elites, to scare them, and to put forward the following message: this is not your war, you better raise a white flag and surrender. Lithuanians, Latvians, and Poles are again playing the role of the Western world’s jackals and could thus again trigger a catastrophe for the whole of humankind.
This claim is a conspiracy theory aimed at discrediting Poland and the Baltic states and the West as a whole. It is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin narratives about alleged Western aggression and anti-Russian activities, attempts to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations and to counteract the Union State between Belarus and Russia. NATO is a defensive alliance and does not pose a threat to Russia. Its purpose is to protect its member states. Every country that joins NATO undertakes to uphold its principles and policies, and this includes the commitment that "the Alliance does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia," as reaffirmed at the Brussels Summit. For more information about NATO-Russia relations and disinformation narratives about NATO, see here and here. See earlier disinformation cases alleging that the West is targeting the Union State between Belarus and Russia and that Poland is to blame for being attacked by Stalin in 1939.