Poroshenko may unleash a war on Russia

Summary

From the act of provocation in the Kerch Strait Poroshenko has moved on to phase two of his plan to escalate pre-war tensions on the Russian border. In fear of losing the March 2019 presidential election Poroshenko has come up with the idea of postponing the polls, so may now resort to unleashing a war on Russia in order to achieve that goal.

Disproof

No evidence given of any preparations by Ukraine to unleash a war on Russia. Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation about the war in Ukraine.

The Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has stated that “the information available suggests that the situation within the territory of Crimea and Sevastopol amounts to an international armed conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. This international armed conflict began at the latest on 26 February when the Russian Federation deployed members of its armed forces to gain control over parts of the Ukrainian territory without the consent of the Ukrainian Government.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 129
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 07/12/2018
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Ukraine
  • Keywords: Kerch, Provocation, War in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko
  • Outlet: Post Scriptum @ TV Centre, time 25:02
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Ukrainian aggression, putsch and Neo-Nazi organisations

The intentional provocation executed by Kyiv saw three Ukrainian naval vessels seized by Russia. The vessels were intentionally violating protocol for passing through the Strait – protocol previously agreed upon by Kiev and previously observed by Ukrainian naval vessels.
(…) US-NATO backed putsch that seized power in Ukraine in 2013 – setting off Ukrainian-Russian tensions in the first place.
(…) the prominent role paramilitary Neo-Nazi organizations have played in both overthrowing the elected government in 2013 and militancy carried out against Russian businesses, institutions, and even Ukrainians of Russian descent– particularly in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

Disproof

On November 25 border patrol boats belonging to Russia’s FSB security serviceseized two small Ukrainian armoured artillery vessels and their crews after shooting at them, wounding several Ukrainian servicemen. Russia argued that they were in Russian waters.

However a bilateral treaty between Russia and Ukraine, signed in 2003 and ratified by Russia in 2004, governs the use of the Kerch strait and the Sea of Azov, which in the treaty is considered to be the “internal waters” of both Russia and Ukraine.

More migrants – more crime and less safety in the EU

Migrants are bringing crime and violence and they contribute substantially to Europe’s decay. Eurostat’s recent survey on the safest EU countries (Croatia, Poland and Slovakia) was used to ‘prove’ that security is directly dependant on the lack of immigrants and unwillingness to let them in. The same media also described the statistics on basic firearms licences in Germany, highlighting a substantial increase (of 130%) of licences and linking it to the bigger numbers of migrants in the country and a general increase in the murders, rapes and terror attacks caused by them.

Disproof

A recurring pro-Kremlin narrative regarding migrants as a threat to the EU and to the security of its member states. No evidence was presented. The original Eurostat data, to which the disinforming outlet is referring, do not say anything about the link between safety and presence of immigrants or lack thereof. Moreover, the country with the biggest number of people reporting crime, violence or vandalism, according to the same data, is Bulgaria - a country which,in light of another set of data by Eurostat, actually has one of the lowest numbers of migrants. Therefore, the disinforming outlet's arguments does not hold ground anyway. The statistical information introduced in the articles was manipulated to show correlations between the numbers and the safety threats coming from migrants. No such correlations exist.

Ukraine plans an offensive; a chemical attack might be planned

Thousands of troops together with Western instructors have been moved towards the border with Russia. Ukraine is also reportedly deploying tanks to Mariupol, and the separatists have seen chemical warfare vehicles – which could mean a chemical attack is being planned.

Disproof

No evidence of any war preparations by Ukraine. Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation about chemical weapons in the war in Ukraine, it also repeatedly accuses others of chemical weapons use to hide this use by its ally the Assad regime.

Pro-Kremlin sources repeatedly accused Ukraine of plans for escalation without providing any evidence, see e.g. euvsdisinfo.eu/report/ukraine-planning-major-hostilities-during-the-world-cup/; euvsdisinfo.eu/report/ukraine-is-increasing-its-military-presence-in-donbas-and-is-preparing-a-major-provocation/; or euvsdisinfo.eu/report/possible-that-kiev-plans-provocation-with-chemical-weapons-in-donbas/

Pro-Kremlin sources repeatedly accuse foreign military of taking part in the war in Ukraine without providing any evidence, see dozens of cases in our database: euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?text=&disinfo_issue=&disinfo_keywords%5B%5D=77165&date=