Putin’s warning prevented Ukraine from launching an offensive

Summary

The Ukrainian military is cursing the Ukrainian leadership. They said that they were ready for an offensive, but then had to put down their arms right after this statement was made. So [Putin’s] warning … for Ukraine has worked.

Disproof

During the direct line TV show, president Vladimir Putin's warned Kyiv of "very serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood" if it launched an offensive against pro-Russian fighters in the country’s east during the World Cup. www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-ukraine/putin-warns-ukraine-against-military-action-in-east-during-world-cup-idUSKCN1J31G5,

The disinformation about Ukraine preparing a major offensive in the eastern Ukraine is coming from a party of the conflict and has been a recurring topic of pro-Kremlin disinformation for a long time: euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?text=&disinfo_issue=&disinfo_keywords%5B%5D=77110&date=,

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has not reported of "major hostilities" being under preparation.  "Between 28 May and 10 June 2018, the security situation along the contact line in the east of Ukraine remained tense. The OSCE SMM recorded more than 14,000 ceasefire violations – a five per cent increase, compared to the previous reporting period. The SMM’s freedom of movement remained restricted due to the presence of mines and unexploded ordnance on both sides of the contact line, as well as due to other restrictions, mostly denial of access, by members of the armed formations (22 times) and by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (12 times). In one incident on 30 May, in a non-government-controlled area near Petrivske, an SMM patrol heard an explosion less than 300m from its location (www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/383014), . In another incident on 7 June, in government-controlled Pivdenne, SMM patrol members heard warning shots fired 70-100m from them (www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/383895), . In addition, the sides have continued to target SMM unmanned aerial vehicles, through jamming and targeting them with small-arms fire. In one incident on 9 June, an SMM long-range UAV spotted a surface-to-air missile system (9K33 Osa) near non-government-controlled Ukrainske and recorded the contrail of one missile at approximately the same altitude of the UAV and the launching of a second missile passing below the SMM’s UAV." www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/384327?download=true,

 

 

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 112
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 14/06/2018
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Russia, Ukraine
  • Keywords: War in Ukraine
  • Outlet: Pravo Golosa @TV Centre, 4:35
see more

Ukraine planning major hostilities during the World Cup

[Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security Council urges people to donate blood for the Ukrainian military] What is this call for a mass blood donation campaign if there are no major hostilities? If we believe OSCE reports, there are no hostilities. It is not clear. There is an impression that there are some preparations for war.

Ukraine has brought a huge amount of hardware and personnel to the delineation line. This amount is enough to raze Donetsk and its environs to the ground.

The reports about alleged Ukrainian preparations for an offensive in Donbass are linked to the World Cup.

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation coming from one party of the conflict, no evidence given. euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-cases/?text=&disinfo_issue=&disinfo_keywords%5B%5D=77110&date=,

Oleksandr Turchynov called on the high officials to share their blood with the defenders of Ukraine on the eve of the World Blood Donor Day. www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/news/3051.html,

Ukraine violated international rules when they did not close the airspace, allowing MH17 to be shot down

Ukraine participates in the investigation, despite the fact that Kiev violated international rules and did not close the airspace over the territory where the fighting took place.

Disproof

At that time, the airspace was closed over the area up to 32,000 feet. The commercial flight MH17 was passing the area at 33,000 feet. There was nothing to suggest at the time that the presumed ill-equipped pro-Russian separatists would have access to sophisticated weapons that would be able to shoot down an airplane at that height.

The international rules on regarding airspace over conflict zones, signatories to the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention), ICAO Member States are obliged to promptly communicate potential risks to safe and secure civil aviation operations in their sovereign or delegated airspace, including those relating to conflict zones. This had been done, and many airlines, including Lufthansa and Air France-KLM, sent their jets over eastern Ukraine until the MH17 crash www.ft.com/content/388331f4-1249-11e4-93a5-00144feabdc0,