It is no secret anymore that Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s political regime is quickly advancing towards the West. The policy of turning Belarus into second Ukraine, followed by the entry of Belarus into the sphere of the direct control of Washington, can happen, which will mean Russian loss. The main content of Lukashenka’s course is to impose a Ukrainian-like Belarusian nationalism. There is no other way for Belarus to drift away from Russia. Generally, a belief that Belarusian ruling elite can preserve real sovereignty is a madness. Belarus can only move to the protectorate status either under the West or Russia. Its present state is temporary and transitional, and it came into existence as a result of the USSR collapse. However nowadays Russia is proceeding with geopolitical and geo-economic expansion, and Belarus will inevitably be pulled back. The story of a province named ‘Belarus’ that broke away from the USSR is just a private Lukashenka’s story. The time has come to make a geopolitical choice. By becoming Russia’s protectorate Belarus will preserve its economic and cultural identity. In the case of West’s protectorate, Belarus will face economic devastation and forced Polonization by becoming Polish third-class agrarian colony. Under Belarusian sovereignty, the West means a total clean-up of Russian influence and status of anti-Russia.
Ukrainian authorities keep calling Russia the “aggressor”. However, the Russian authorities have repeatedly reminded that Moscow is not a party to the conflict. Russia is part of the Normandy process for the Ukrainian settlement, and also participated in the drafting of the Minsk agreements, which aim to put an end to the conflict in the Donbas.
A recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the war in Ukraine, claiming that Russia is not part of the conflict in Donbas, that Russia has nothing to do with the war in eastern Ukraine and that there is a “civil war” in Donbas. The European Union stated in July 2014 that "arms and fighters continue flowing into Ukraine from the Russian Federation". At the NATO Summit in Wales in September 2014, NATO leaders condemned in the strongest terms Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine and demanded Russia to stop and withdraw its forces from Ukraine and from the country’s border. NATO leaders also demanded Russia comply with international law and its international obligations and responsibilities; refrain from aggressive actions against Ukraine; halt the flow of weapons, equipment, people and money across the border to the separatists; and stop fomenting tension along and across the Ukrainian border. In 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin admitted Russia's military presence in Ukraine.