On the eve of the 70th anniversary of the founding of NATO, the Alliance Defence College presented three ways to develop the military bloc. The report includes the “good”, “bad” and “terrible” scenarios, and in each of the forecasts, Russia is considered an enemy.
This is a recurring Kremlin narrative about the belligerent West and NATO attempting to encircle and weaken Russia.
According to the research paper "NATO's futures: the Atlantic Alliance between Power and Purpose", where three scenarios of NATO's future are mentioned, Russia is not regarded as the main enemy. Before the description the author explains: "The opening discussion of geopolitics pointed to the key trends we must assess as part of this more circumscribed approach to future history: not least the United States' approach to its modern-day Monroe doctrine but also the ability of all Allies to protect their Alliance into the future where China looms large, their ability to engage Russia in a regional order, and then their ability to contain non-state disruption to the south".
While the three scenarios do explore potentially difficult relations with, i.a., a contentious Russia, the conclusion encourages a NATO mindset change on Russia to ensure a an all-around more sustainable outcome. "To secure NATO’s future and these wider benefits, the Allies should contemplate a number of ideas outlined in this report: that NATO should shift its mindset on Russia, downgrade its hope of friendship (which, when disappointed, heightens the level of antagonism) and instead offer Russia a partnership in a revised balance-of power arrangement for Europe." (p. 2)