Disinfo: The Baltic States and Poland are blowing Belarus up from the inside

Summary

The Baltic States and Poland are blowing Belarus up from the inside. The West loudly reproaches Russia for “interfering in the affairs of Belarus” – and this is at the very moment a number of Western countries brazenly put pressure on Belarusian society and the state. Vilnius faces two challenges. Firstly, position themselves as the main fighters against the Russian world (of which Lukashenka is considered a part, as well as the way the Belarusian president communicates with his people). Secondly, to actively make money on this positioning – given the deplorable state of the Lithuanian economy, the country really needs money. Warsaw needs an obedient (or better yet, a puppet) regime in Minsk to create an image of Poland as a regional power, thereby increasing its influence and opportunities within the European Union.

Disproof

This is part of a Russian disinformation campaign about Belarus based on recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives alleging that the West is destabilising the situation in Minsk and provoking military actions on the Belarusian borders. There is no evidence that that the West, nor Poland and Lithuania in particular, are trying to destabilise the situation in Belarus. Poland and Lithuania support the independence and territorial integrity of Belarus and they do not have any territorial claims against their neighbour. According to Reuters, Lithuania declared it does not pose a threat to Belarus. “The Belarus crisis is a political one, and any allegations by the Belarus leadership about foreign countries’ interference or about any threats they pose are an attempt to shift blame and justify its own actions,” said Lithuanian Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis. The Foreign Minister of Lithuania Linas Linkevičius said Lukashenko’s statement about a military buildup “is a lie” and is meant to create an excuse to call for help from Russia. Lithuania hosted military manoeuvres on August 2-14, which included 1,100 of its own troops and 200 U.S. soldiers and 10 U.S. military helicopters arriving from Poland. Poland refutes accusations about alleged military provocations towards Belarus and attempts to destabilise the neighbouring country. An aide to Poland's president, Krzysztof Szczerski stated that such accusations were unacceptable and that no one in Poland would take advantage of the political turmoil in Belarus. The countries of the European Union have nothing to do with the mass protests in Belarus: rallies of thousands broke out after Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has ruled for 26 years, declared that he had “won a convincing victory” in the elections. The current protests in Belarus began on the evening of August 9; to disperse the protesters, the security forces are using rubber bullets, flash grenades, tear gas, shockers and water cannons. On the day of voting, the centre of Minsk was blocked by security forces, whilst communications and the Internet were jammed in the city. Read similar cases: "Lublin Triangle" - the organiser of the coup in Belarus and Poland is openly leading a coup in Belarus.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 210
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 03/09/2020
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, Baltic states, Russia
  • Keywords: Diplomacy with Russia, Russian superiority, Alexander Lukashenko
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In Belarus there are signs of a colour revolution, but a hybrid one

Today in Belarus we see signs of a colour revolution, but a hybrid one. It combines Hong Kong’s 2019-2020 scheme, and in terms of its overall coup strategy, the colour revolution in Belarus is very similar and almost replicates the Venezuelan scenario first used by the Americans in 2019. It is a technology that is almost never missed. The elements of the Ukrainian Maidan are clearly visible as the main outline in the events taking place in Belarus.

Disproof

This is part of an ongoing Russian disinformation campaign on Belarus based on recurrent pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives, such as accusing other countries of interference and portraying popular protests against electoral fraud in the country as a Western-led colour revolution. The protests in Belarus erupted to contest the results of the presidential elections in Belarus that took place on the 9 August, which are considered fraudulent by a large part of Belarusian society. The European Union has also stated that the elections were neither free nor fair. There is no evidence that the protests in Belarus are funded and organised externally. Pro-Kremlin media frequently use disinformation narratives about popular protests around the world allegedly incited and funded by the US and other Western states. It has been applied, among others, to protests in Ukraine, Venezuela, Georgia, and Belarus, as well as to present a deceiving narrative on the aggressive West constantly preparing new coups. See similar cases claiming that the protests in Belarus are a colour revolution conducted according to a Maidan scenario and that the West wants to prepare Maidan in Belarus.

Colour revolutions in the post-Soviet countries were aimed at separating those from Russia

As a rule, all the colour revolutions organised in the post-Soviet countries were aimed at separating those countries from the Russian Federation… Unfortunately, all these revolutions are either openly anti-Russian, and more often they are just such a slow-moving Russophobia, or even an attempt to move away completely from Russia.

Disproof

This is a conspiracy which is consistent with a number of recurring pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives about the aggressive West, its attempts to encircle Russia and organise colour revolutions in the post-Soviet space and about the West's attempts to disrupt Russias ties with other post-Soviet countries. This narrative portrays any spontaneous disorders and civil uprisings in other states, especially the former Soviet republics, as West-funded Anti-Russian and Russophobic "coups" and attempts by the West to overthrow regimes in post-Soviet states and in other regions. The narrative has been applied, among others, to report about protests in Ukraine, Venezuela, Georgia, Armenia and Belarus, as well as to portray the West as an aggressive actor constantly preparing new coups. Read a similar case claiming that global liberal elite stages Russophobic events throughout the world, that the West wants to turn Belarus into an anti-Russian outpost, that the US backed the coup in Ukraine in 2014, that the protests in Belarus are a colour revolution conducted according to a Maidan scenario and that the West wants to prepare Maidan in Belarus, or that the masters of the colour revolution in Armenia are only interested in creating problems for Russia.

Ukrainian militants are staying in Belarus to carry out a coup d'etat

About 200 extremists trained in Ukraine are currently in Belarus. Ukrainian militants are staying in Belarus to carry out a coup d’etat. At the same time, they are actively cooperating with the Polish special services. The coup d’etat in Belarus is carried out under their leadership. They involve their partners from Ukraine to do the dirty work.

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the Belarus protests and about protests in post-communist countries in general, presenting them as being organised and controlled from abroad. Neither in the text nor elsewhere is there any evidence that foreign forces are involved in the protests in Belarus. Large-scale protests began in Minsk on August 9 against the results of the presidential election, and then in other cities. People revolted against what they call election fraud but also against the aggressiveness of the police, who arrested and ill-treated hundreds of protestors. Ukraine's foreign minister Dmitro Kuleba reacted to Sergey Lavrov's claims about the 200 Ukrainian extremists in Belarus:

“I don't even want to comment on this nonsense. The 200 Ukrainian extremists that Ukraine allegedly sent to Belarus to destabilise the situation, and the training camps for extremists in Ukraine are the fruit of the painful imagination of those who provided such information to my Russian colleague Sergey Lavrov."

On the other hand, Russia has openly claimed it is willing to intervene in Belarus if the situation escalates. Read a similar case claiming that the West is preparing a colour revolution in Belarus.