The scenario of colour revolutions is almost always the same around the world and the main principles by which such coups are carried out date back to the 1990s when the American Colonel Robert Helvey, in 1999 in Budapest, had organised courses for young Serbian revolutionaries, and techniques that were used on that occasion, can now be easily seen in the events in Belarus.
The Baltic States and Poland are blowing Belarus up from the inside. The West loudly reproaches Russia for “interfering in the affairs of Belarus” – and this is at the very moment a number of Western countries brazenly put pressure on Belarusian society and the state.
Vilnius faces two challenges. Firstly, position themselves as the main fighters against the Russian world (of which Lukashenka is considered a part, as well as the way the Belarusian president communicates with his people). Secondly, to actively make money on this positioning – given the deplorable state of the Lithuanian economy, the country really needs money. Warsaw needs an obedient (or better yet, a puppet) regime in Minsk to create an image of Poland as a regional power, thereby increasing its influence and opportunities within the European Union.
This is part of a Russian disinformation campaign about Belarus based on recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives alleging that the West is destabilising the situation in Minsk and provoking military actions on the Belarusian borders.
There is no evidence that that the West, nor Poland and Lithuania in particular, are trying to destabilise the situation in Belarus. Poland and Lithuania support the independence and territorial integrity of Belarus and they do not have any territorial claims against their neighbour.
According to Reuters, Lithuania declared it does not pose a threat to Belarus. “The Belarus crisis is a political one, and any allegations by the Belarus leadership about foreign countries’ interference or about any threats they pose are an attempt to shift blame and justify its own actions,” said Lithuanian Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis.
The Foreign Minister of Lithuania Linas Linkevičius said Lukashenko’s statement about a military buildup “is a lie” and is meant to create an excuse to call for help from Russia. Lithuania hosted military manoeuvres on August 2-14, which included 1,100 of its own troops and 200 U.S. soldiers and 10 U.S. military helicopters arriving from Poland.
Poland refutes accusations about alleged military provocations towards Belarus and attempts to destabilise the neighbouring country. An aide to Poland's president, Krzysztof Szczerski stated that such accusations were unacceptable and that no one in Poland would take advantage of the political turmoil in Belarus.
The countries of the European Union have nothing to do with the mass protests in Belarus: rallies of thousands broke out after Aleksandr Lukashenko, who has ruled for 26 years, declared that he had “won a convincing victory” in the elections. The current protests in Belarus began on the evening of August 9; to disperse the protesters, the security forces are using rubber bullets, flash grenades, tear gas, shockers and water cannons. On the day of voting, the centre of Minsk was blocked by security forces, whilst communications and the Internet were jammed in the city.
Read similar cases: "Lublin Triangle" - the organiser of the coup in Belarus and Poland is openly leading a coup in Belarus.