Russia will prevent a full-fledged protracted war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both countries are not just located in the Russian sphere of influence, but also belong to the post-Soviet space. Hence, they are part of historic Russia, be it the Russian empire or the USSR. Three decades of independence do not make Armenia and Azerbaijan accomplished sovereign states. Actual sustainable statehood does not stem from an accidental historical occasion such as the break up of the USSR. Armenians and Azeris received their countries largely accidentally.
The ongoing events in Nagorno-Karabakh resemble the 1956 scheme when the West instigated an uprising in Hungary to cover-up the war against Egypt. Today, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh was escalated to divert Russian attention from Belarus. In other words, this is a cover-up operation just as the Hungarian uprising in 1956 was.
This is a conspiracy theory claiming that the recent escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the result of deliberate Western actions aimed at harming Russian interests in Belarus. It therefore corresponds to recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the belligerent and hostile US and West against Russia and fits well into the disinformation narrative that presents virtually all protests, civil uprisings or local conflicts as a consequence of the West's intentional actions.
The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is a continuation of the decades-old conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is reported that nearly 100 people, including civilians, have died as of 29 September 2020. On 27 September, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell made a statement calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, de-escalation and for strict observance of the ceasefire.
As we explained in our past analysis, the image of a belligerent West which allegedly provokes protests and local conflicts in Russia's vicinity manufactures a fictional adversary that provides convenient cover for Moscow to justify its illicit activities on the grounds of “defence” and self-preservation.
The Hungarian Revolution of 1956 was a spontaneous nationwide uprising against the Hungarian People's Republic and its Soviet-imposed policies. The allegations that either the Hungarian events in 1956 or the recent escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict were instigated by the West to divert the USSR and Russia from other foreign policy issues are groundless.
See earlier disinformation cases alleging that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict favours US interests, someone wants to divert Russia from Belarus and Syria, that the escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is directed against Russia, and that the US is ready to carry out a false flag operation in Alaska to blame Russia.