The Ukrainian authorities are trying to sit in two chairs. On the one hand, they want to respect their pro-Western commitments including participation the Lublin Trio together with Lithuania and Poland. The Lublin Trio serves as a ram for political transformations in Belarus with the aim of including the latter in the anti-Russian front. On the other hand, Ukraine does not want retaliatory measures from Belarus given that the first round of colour revolution failed. Ukraine’s irrational actions towards Belarus means Ukrainian policies are not made in Kyiv.
Polish strategists, assisted by leading American think tanks like the Rand Corporation, elaborated concepts of hybrid aggression against Belarus. Now that the Belarusian state sustained external aggression, Kyiv risks facing larger security threats from the North than before. Such risks for Kyiv will be higher in case the West transfers the center of anti-Belarusian activities from Poland to Ukraine.