Disinfo: The US has planned the turmoil in Belarus and the rise of tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh a year ago


Everything is going according to the American plans of “overextending Russia “… They tried to stir things up in Belarus – it did not work. Now they began to stir up Karabakh again. Transnistria is next. [The goal is] an arc of tension along the [Russian] western borders.


Conspiracy theory and a recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the US presence in Europe.

This disinformation message builds on previous disinformation claims about the RAND corporation, accusing of plotting to overextend and disbalance Russia. See a related disinformation claim here. 

On 27 September 2020, fighting erupted along the Line of Contact in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, causing military and civilian casualties.  Both the EU and the US called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.

The protests in Belarus erupted to contest the results of the presidential election on the 9th of August, which are considered fraudulent by a large part of Belarusian society. The European Union has also stated that the elections were neither free nor fair.



  • Reported in: Issue 213
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 28/09/2020
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus
  • Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh, US presence in Europe


Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Soviet occupation is a myth

The main reason for the myth of the “Soviet occupation” is the policy of apartheid and de-Russification.

They just want to find an excuse for discrimination against the Russian-speaking minority.

As long as NATO is in the Baltics, we will constantly hear about the “Soviet occupation”, the policy of apartheid will continue, and the country’s leaders will continue their anti-Russian rhetoric.


Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the Baltic States. 

The Soviet occupation is not a myth. On the 23rd of August, 1939, Soviet Union and Nazi Germany signed a non-aggression (Molotov-Ribbentrop) pact, whose secret protocols divided the territories belonging to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland and Romania into Soviet and Nazi spheres of influence. The secrets behind the the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact led to  World War II and all its consequences. Shortly after the pact was signed, Poland was invaded by Nazi Germany on 1 September and by Soviets on 17 September in 1939, followed by the Soviet aggression against Finland, and in June 1940  - occupation of the Baltic States and part of Romania.

Imperialistic Poland and Lithuania are the springboard for Belarusian Maidan

Poland and Lithuania are the springboards for Belarusian Maidan. The Belarusian opposition has long been based in Lithuania, whereas Poland has been making preparations for a Belarusian Maidan for years. Poland aims at putting its protégé on a throne and making Belarus its colony. This way, Warsaw plans to increase its role in the EU and to establish a bridgehead on Russian borders. It also wants to restore the Polish empire with a new ideological “sauce”.


Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the Belarusian protests;  and about imperial and colonial intentions of Poland and Lithuania,  as well as about their anti-Russian activities.

Poland fully supports the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine and Belarus, it does not have any territorial claims against its neighbours and it rejects any “imperial” ambitions towards other countries.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict favours US interests, someone wants to divert Russia from Belarus and Syria

The escalated Nagorno-Karabakh conflict clearly creates problems for Russia and serves the US national interests. It seems that third parties want to drag Russia in a big war in the Caucasus and thereby divert its efforts from Belarus, Syria, Nord Stream II and other geopolitical issues. Consciously or not, Azerbaijan and Armenia are harming Russian interests and destroying CIS and CSTO security systems. This may well be the result of comprehensive military and political combination rather then mere coincidence.

A number of planned armed conflicts of average intensity in the Caucasus and other regions manifest the US’s desire to prevail in economic and military spheres in the vicinity of the Russian border. The US does not care about the population of CIS countries, whereas Russia will have to deal with such local conflicts, therefore less Russian resources will remain to compete with Washington in other parts of the world.


This is conspiracy theory hinting that the recent escalation of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is the result of deliberate US actions aimed at harming Russia and its interests. It therefore corresponds to recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the belligerent and hostile US and West against Russia and fits well into the disinformation narrative that presents virtually all protests, civil uprisings or local conflicts as a consequence of the West's intentional actions.

The recent escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is a continuation of the decades-old conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It is reported that nearly 100 people, including civilians, have died as of 29 September 2020. On 27 September, the EU High Representative Josep Borrell made a statement calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities, de-escalation and for strict observance of the ceasefire.