Disinfo: The US wants to convert Belarus into a zone of instability and make it an anti-Russian puppet

Summary

The US’s interest is to bring a loyalist puppet government in Belarus to power or at least create a zone of instability in Belarus. The goal is to add Belarus to the anti-Russian cordon sanitaire, which also includes Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine. A network of NGOs in Ukraine will grow in order to influence Belarus’s information space. Ukraine’s anti-Belarusian actions will be activated if Washington wishes so. One cannot rule out that Ukrainian special services will intensify their activities in Belarus.

Disproof

This article promotes recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about West's actions aimed to encircle Russia and to organise a colour revolution in Belarus, as well as about Ukraine as a Western puppet.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba announced Ukraine's readiness to line up with the EU sanctions on Belarus. However, there is no evidence that Kyiv was forced by the West to do so, just as the claims about a US-driven colour revolution are groundless. There is no evidence that the US, Lithuania, Poland, or Ukraine somehow staged massive unprecedented protests in Belarus. They began in Minsk on August 9 against the results of the presidential election, and then in other cities. People revolted against election fraud and police violence towards thousands of rally participants.

According to statistical data and independent observers, the official result of the presidential election was itself heavily doctored. A joint monitoring effort by three NGOs demonstrates the scale of falsification based on election protocols from 1,310 polling stations across Belarus and concludes that the announced result (80% of votes cast for Lukashenka) is mathematically "impossible" (p. 7). An analysis by the Novaya Gazeta newspaper shows that excluding "anomalous" voting districts from the official tally would see Lukashenka's percentage drop to 43%, and Tsikhanouskaya's surge to 45%, in which case a second round would have to be called.

By late November 2020, over 30,000 people have been detained in Belarus since the election, and over 140 of them were declared political prisoners. By September 2020, UN human rights experts received reports of 450 documented cases of torture and ill-treatment of people deprived of their liberty after the disputed presidential election and called on Belarus to stop torturing detainees.

In early October 2020, the EU imposed restrictive measures against 40 individuals responsible for repression and intimidation against peaceful demonstrators, opposition members, and journalists in the wake of the 2020 presidential election in Belarus, as well as for misconduct of the electoral process. The Council added 15 members of the Belarusian authorities, including Alexandr Lukashenko, as well as his son and National Security Adviser Viktor Lukashenko, to the list of sanctions, on 6 November 2020.

See earlier disinformation cases alleging that protests in former Soviet countries are part of an anti-Russian plan, that imperialistic Poland and Lithuania are the springboards for Belarusian Maidan, that CIA and Pentagon prepare Belarusian protestors in Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic states, that the Belarusian protests are managed from Ukraine and NATO countries, and that the West wants to make Belarus Russophobic in order to encircle Russia.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 222
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 19/11/2020
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, US, Poland
  • Keywords: Encircling Russia, Destabilising Russia, Puppets, Colour revolutions, Conspiracy theory

Disclaimer

Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Maia Sandu won thanks to election fraud, this is the success of the collective West

The high turnout of Moldovan emigrants and a convincing victory of Maia Sandu in western countries followed from the full support of their authorities. They applied mobilisation techniques and organised transportation of voters to polling stations. Critics point at election fraud by overestimating the numbers of voters in Italy, Germany, the UK, Romania and other countries. The EU and US actively advocated for Maia Sandu. Her electoral victory is a success of the collective West in the big game.

Sandu’s team is very similar to the teams of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Nikol Pashinyan. All were cultivated in the test tubes of American and European foundations and often cannot do anything except for completing application forms for grant support and speaking some English.

In case the US embassy voices recommendations concerning Moldova-Belarus relations, Sandu will likely join the critics of Alyaksandr Lukashenka.

Disproof

This publication is consistent with recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about West-inspired colour revolutions in post-Soviet countries and their puppet status in relations with the US, and about West's actions aimed to encircle Russia. It also contains disinformation concerning alleged fraud in the Moldovan presidential election and its facilitation by the western countries.

There is no evidence of US and EU interference in upcoming elections in Moldova. The US and EU countries support a free and fair electoral process in Moldova. A statement published by the EU on 02 November 2020 underlines that "The European Union fully supports the strengthening of democratic institutions in the Republic of Moldova and highlights that respecting the right of all voters to express their will in credible, inclusive and transparent elections is a fundamental democratic principle which is also at the heart of the EU-Republic of Moldova Association Agreement."

Poland and Hungary are likely to leave the EU, the western democracy is in crisis

Poland and Hungary played a dirty trick at the EU summit by blocking the adoption of the EU budget for 2021-2027 and COVID-19 recovery package. Two countries are crashing the EU system with its own rules. The EU crisis is becoming clearer. Whereas the European Parliament and other EU bodies lack real power, anonymous Brussels bureaucrats are very powerful. Bigger EU members states pressure and blackmail others to reach consensus, this is how anti-Russian sanctions were endorsed.

Experts believe that the exit of Poland and Hungary out of the EU is very likely. Brussels and western European countries may also prefer this development to deal with ‘rebels’. The hardest blow will be inflicted on western democracy which is not functioning well.

Disproof

This publication is consistent with a common pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about the EU's imminent collapse and about a dysfunctional EU governed by the bureaucrats who are out of touch with the needs of the people.

Poland and Hungary indeed blocked the adoption of the EU budget and coronavirus recovery package at the latest EU summit. This does not mean, however, that the two countries are about to leave the EU. The talks among the EU member states over the EU budget and COVID-19 recovery programme will continue.

US political uncertainty temporarily gives the Baltic states a larger degree of sovereignty

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya visited Latvia to remind of herself and to try to add Latvia to the Polish-Lithuania coalition and to influence it on the issue of the Belarusian nuclear power plant. However Tsikhanouskaya is just an avatar, she is a visual representation of people who stand behind her. There is no point in talking to Tsikhanouskaya, one should talk to those behind her avatar. Furthermore, Latvia cannot propose anything either. It is not sovereign in foreign issues and does what elder brothers tell it to do. There is a change in the US and it is not clear where the Latvian command centre is. Hence Latvian politicians and politicians of the Baltic states in the wider sense temporarily have somewhat larger autonomy. Within the next months when political uncertainty in the US is over, the Baltic states’ politicians will be moving in the direction assigned by the US.

Disproof

This publication contains recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the Baltic states as non-sovereign and the Belarusian opposition including Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as Western puppets.

Often presented as American vassals or puppet states, the Baltic States are independent states, which shape their own foreign and domestic policies. The US is an important ally to the EU but EU policy is not determined by the US, as explained by the EU High Representative.