Disinfo: The war between Russia and NATO will break out in the Baltic Sea


The US Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments stated in its recent report that the conflict between Russia and NATO is likely to lead to a military conflict in the Baltic Sea.


An often repeated narrative about the approaching conflict between Russia and NATO.

In fact, the cited report resume explicitly says that “a major conflict between NATO and Russia remains unlikely”.

The report itself mentions no upcoming war between Russia and the NATO in the Baltic Sea, but speaks about the necessary precautions to strengthen the defence capabilities of the NATO members in the area (see p. 30 - 35).


  • Reported in: Issue 143
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 21/03/2019
  • Language/target audience: Polish
  • Country: Russia, Baltic states
  • Keywords: Baltic sea, War preparation, NATO


Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Eurozone enables larger states to exploit smaller ones

Older EU member states and eurozone members with large economies exploit smaller states and newer EU and eurozone members such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia.


A recurrent pro-Kremlin narrative seeking to create or exacerbate divisions within Europe. Recent economic statistics on the GDP growth of the newer eurozone members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia argue against any exploitation.

In April 2019, the International Monetary Fund indicates the real GDP growth of these countries as follows: 3.2 % for Estonia, 3.3% for Latvia, 2.9% for Lithuania and 4.1% for Slovakia. Their GDP growth is mostly larger than in the “older” member states, such as Germany with 1.6% and France with 1.9%. Eurostat data also reveals predominately stable GDP growth in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia since the last global crisis of 2009. These numbers are also confirmed by the World Bank.

Ukrainian elections have to be recognised as illegitimate

The Presidential elections in Ukraine have to be recognised as illegitimate. There has never been such dirty, brutal use of illegal funding during an election campaign in Ukraine as at this time.


Recurring and unfounded pro-Kremlin disinformation about the Ukraine elections.

The OSCE PA Election Observation Mission in Ukraine has declared that the first round of the presidential elections in Ukraine was competitive, and citizens had the opportunity to freely express their will.  “We can admit that there were definitely competitive elections and the opportunity to vote for the candidate the citizens wanted to elect was provided”, the OSCE Special Coordinator, OSCE PA Honorary President Ilkka Kanerva said.

Western warlike provocations in the Black Sea

Since 1990, the Western answer was clear: under no circumstances should Moscow be able to sit at the same table.  The new antagonism was decreed by the West and they tried to bring it about by global constriction of the Russian Federation.

The warlike provocations of the West in the Black Sea must cease and there must be the opportunity for all sides to face up to their true behaviour.  The escalation screw is in American hands.  Europe and the world must be made capable of peace.


No evidence given. Recurring pro-Kremlin narrative on Western belligerence towards Russia and on Russophobia.

Moreover, there was a clear record of strong cooperation between the EU and Russia, dating back to 1994, when the two sides negotiated a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.  Russia was identified as a strategic partner for the EU, and was the only country with which the EU held summits not once, but twice a year. A new EU-Russia agreement was being negotiated up until 2014, at which point talks were suspended due to Russia's involvement in the Ukraine conflict.  The EU and NATO repeatedly emphasised their intention to have a "constructive dialogue with Russia". Read more here.