Disinfo: The West supports a bloody post-election Maidan scenario in Belarus

Summary

Enemies of Alexander Lukashenko want victims and blood, in order to launch a Maidan scenario supported by the West, mostly Poland. However, the main component for this scenario is missing, a split in society and in the ruling establishment. The whole protest potential is 10% of voters for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, and 4,6% who voted against all candidates. The protest organisers do not care that there is neither a dictator in Belarus nor a popular uprising, they need specific media coverage and larger external pressure. This happened in various colour revolutions and their unsuccessful attempts, including against Russia. It is unfair to blame Lukashenka for not wanting the complete unification with Russia. His historical function was to preserve two Russias, a Big and White ones.

Disproof

This is a classic conspiracy and recurring pro-Kremlin narrative about Western attempts to plans to organise a colour revolution in Belarus and to disrupt Belarusian-Russian relations. It also promotes the Russian World concept discussing the so called Big and White Russias.

It should be noted that the recent presidential elections were considered neither free nor fair by the EU. In the past, the EU and US repeatedly introduced sanctions against Belarusian officials for mass violations of human rights and electoral standards, they have not attempted to stage a colour revolution in Belarus or any other country. In its statement of 11 August EU High Representative calls upon Belarus's authorities  "to initiate a genuine and inclusive dialogue with broader society to avoid further violence."

Read earlier disinformation cases alleging that the West is helping to destabilise the situation in Belarus before the election, that US agents attempt to overthrow Lukashenka along the Ukrainian scenario, that the West dreams of tearing Belarus apart from Russia and to organise a Ukraine-like scenario, and that pro-Western Belarusian opposition prepares a revolution with the assistance of armed Ukrainian nationalists.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 208
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 10/08/2020
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Russia, Belarus
  • Keywords: Manipulated elections/referendum, Russian expansionism, Colour revolutions, Conspiracy, Russian world

Disclaimer

Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Belarusian radicals have training camps in Vitebsk and Mogilev regions

Vitebsk and Mogilev regions in Belarus are full of Belarusian radicals, activists of Belarusian national [popular] front. They have established training camps there  – this information is correct 100% – with the knowledge of secret services. It is the same as it happened with training camps of the Right Sector [in Ukraine]. […] What is happening in Vitebsk and Mogilev regions is very dangerous because groups, not unlike the Right Sector train there, and when necessary can join the protests.

Disproof

Conspiracy theory, aiming to discredit popular protests in Belarus.

Belarusian popular front is the oldest opposition party in Belarus. There is no evidence available to claim that it has established training camps, more so with the help of Belarusian secret services.

Poland and Lithuania are the main destabilising sources for Belarus and Belarus-Russia relations

Poland and Lithuania are the main sources of subversive activities against Belarus and Belarus-Russia union. The Belarusian crisis was to a large extent created artificially, the links go to Warsaw and Vilnius. Currently, they are attempting to deepen the political crisis in Belarus and involve as many EU countries as possible.

Disproof

Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative about colour revolution in Belarus alleging Western attempts to disrupt Belarusian-Russian relations.

Mass protests in Belarus erupted against the massive electoral fraud which took place at presidential elections on 9 August 2020. According to the EU, the elections in Belarus were neither free nor fair.  Poland and Lithuania, as well as the EU, have expressed support to people protesting in Belarus.

Protests in Belarus occured because Lukashenko was playing with the West

The attempted coup d’etat in Minsk occurred due to the desire of the Belarusian establishment to develop cooperation with Western countries and to make concessions to them. In Belarus, the Maidan is doomed to failure, because citizens see what happened to Ukraine and do not want a repeat of its fate.

Disproof

The recurring pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives about Western attempts to organise a colour revolution in Belarus.

The reelection of Alexander Lukashenko for a sixth consecutive term as President of Belarus - the only president the country has ever had - has been met with large protests in the country, and scepticism about the fairness of the election at home and abroad.