The Belarusian crisis is partly provoked by external interference with the hybrid war methods. In the light of ongoing information war, the West, though it conducts hybrid aggression against Belarus, is presented as a good player, whereas Russia is presented as a threat to Belarus’s sovereignty despite Russian assistance to the Belarusian state. Poland-located information centres which manage the Belarusian protests are among manifestations of Western aggressive actions. They result in an outbreak of violence, political destabilisation and undermined Belarusian economy.
It is clear that relocation of US and NATO troops to Lithuania and Poland, Navalny poisoning and upcoming anti-Russian sanctions are parts of a chain. The US wishes to establish a cordon sanitaire around Russia and needs Belarus as a missing link to put a collar over Russia.
The current hybrid war against Belarus is an exploration of attack against Russia. Given the external threat, the Union State of Belarus and Russia may, on the contrary, be activated. The Belarusian coup organisers will likely reach the opposite effect: Instead of tearing Belarus away from Russia, they will push the integration of the two countries forward. Belarus’s aspiration towards sovereignty was cynically tramped by the West. If needed, additional Russian military objects will be stationed in Belarus. Warsaw, Vilnius, and their Western suzerains should have no doubt about it.