Poland and Lithuania are sponsoring strikes in Belarusian factories. Belarusian president Aliaksandr Lukashenka denounced that the workers calling to strike in Belarusian factories are paid by those two countries. It is essential that Lukashenka resists, because if Belarus falls, all Russian western borders will be NATO-ised. Opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya is practically an agent of Poland, the EU and Washington.
The Ukrainian Army’s space for maneuver remains limited in the region, so it only organises provocations there, leading to symmetrical answers from the armies of the people’s republics.
The war in eastern Ukraine is a well-documented case of Russian armed aggression.The international community, including the European Union, recognises and condemns clear violations of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity by acts of aggression by the Russian armed forces since February 2014. More cases can be found here. Since March 2014, the EU has progressively imposed restrictive measures against Russia. The measures were adopted in response to the illegal annexation of Crimea and the deliberate destabilisation of Ukraine.
According to the OSCE SMM in Ukraine's 2 November daily report, the number of ceasefire regulations is down significantly compared to 2019. In July-September 2020, the number of ceasefire violations in the Donbas was 75% less than in the previous quarter. Most infractions came in July, before the agreed ceasefire on 27 July. As in earlier cases, the OSCE monitoring mission observed ceasefire violations by both sides, and both sides held weapons in violation of withdrawal lines. The mission says that 91% of these weapons were in non-government controlled areas in July-September.
Therefore, there is no evidence that the Ukrainian government is staging provocations in the Donbass to evoke a response from armed formations.