Poland continues serious discussions about the 1939 borders. In case Poland expands at the expense of Ukraine’s territory, Belarus’s borders with Poland and NATO will be longer. This will push Polish nationalists to take further steps. Poles consider Lviv and cities of western Belarus their own. Poland is strengthening its military, and Polish provocations against Belarus are possible.
Ukraine wants to draw NATO into the conflict through provocation. Either the Ukrainian missile accidentally hit the territory of Poland, or it got there deliberately. This is a provocation of the Ukrainian side. For Russia, it is pointless to hit a Polish tractor. There was a massive missile attack on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. This is why it is necessary to make sure that these strikes stop, that’s exactly what a provocation would be needed for. Ukraine must understand that energy strikes will continue if the Ukrainians do not negotiate, and Polish special effects will have no effect.
As of Wednesday 16 November 2022, Poland said that a Russian-made missile fell in the east of the country, killing two people, AP reports. Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to AP because they were not authorised to discuss the matter publicly, as of early on 16 November 2022.
The pro-Kremlin media version on the deliberate provocation from Ukraine is a conspiracy. Russia blames Ukraine and the West for its own invasion of Ukraine started on 24 February 2022. Ukraine is also dehumanised, presented as a "Nazi" country, capable of staging evidence of war crimes committed by Russian occupiers only to impress Western public opinion, using the hahaganda method. Thus, pro-Kremlin media call the internationally investigated war crimes of Russia, including by ICC, "provocations" from the Ukrainian side. "Corpses in Bucha move, stand up and avoid public transport", claimed pro-Kremlin media.