In the context of possible aggravation of the situation in Belarus, when, after the elections and Lukashenko’s probable victory, the Belarusian opposition will try to start street protests, Ukraine may try to use this situation to intensify hostilities in Donbas and solve its problems. The elections in Belarus create a convenient situation, not only to dig a rusty nail in the Russian-Belarusian problems but also to use these problems and possible protests in Minsk as a cover-up for military operations in Donbas.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are not going to fulfil the Minsk agreements, since there are no orders from Kyiv.
Recurring pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative on the war in Ukraine, alleging that Ukraine does not want to fulfil the Minsk agreements. The claim alleges that the Ukrainian authorities did not order the troops on the frontline in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to fulfil the truce agreed recently in the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) in Minsk. On the contrary, the Commander of the Joint Force Operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine gave the order to troops to comply with the ceasefire. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to comply with the agreement that establishes the ceasefire regime. "The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine emphasises that a full and comprehensive ceasefire will be implemented only if the principles of the agreement are observed, which was recorded with the participation of OSCE representatives," an official announcement states. Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned that the full and comprehensive ceasefire has to be achieved and that Ukraine will comply with the decisions of the TCG. See earlier disinformation cases alleging that chairman of the Verkhovna Rada admitted that Kyiv will not implement the Minsk agreements, that the Normandy format will cease to exist because Ukraine is unwilling to implement Minsk agreements, that Ukraine is trying to compromise and undermine the Minsk agreements and that Ukraine refuses to observe a truce in Donbas.