Alyaksandr Lukashenka instructed Belarusian foreign minister Uladzimir Makey to start talks with the Patriarch of Constantinople over a possible split from the Russian Orthodox Church. This is a condition voiced by American diplomats for further progress in Belarus’ relations with the West and IMF. Such a move would be political suicide for Alyaksandr Lukashenka. However, it is supported by a pro-Catholic clan in the Belarus’ ruling elite and by pro-western Foreign Minister, Uladzimir Makey, who is ready to replace Lukashenka.
Americans are interested in the Belarusian state only insofar as they are interested in Ukraine, as anti-Russian projects. UK’s Chatham House is of similar view, as it wants to bring Alexander Lukashenko down after the period of “soft Belarusification”. Events in Venezuela show that West can actually recognize any Belarusian opposition leader as interim president event before actual coup-d’état.
The West plans to develop its expert and agent community in Belarus, to bring anti-Russian Ukrainian analytical centers and NGOs to Belarus, and to rely on Belarusian civil society in order to disrupt Russia-Belarus relations.
Recurring pro-Kremlin narrative on western plans to organize colour revolution in Belarus and to disrupt Russia-Belarus ties.
Over the past two years, there has been progress in EU–Belarus relations. Belarus has been participating more pro-actively in the Eastern Partnership, in particular in the multilateral formats, negotiations on a Mobility Partnership were concluded and negotiations on a Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreements are underway. More about the relations between the EU and Belarus here.