The version that Kyiv is working on, to disrupt the transit (of gas), is almost confirmed. Almost every day, Naftogaz representatives say they won’t sign the new contract. Of course, they blame Russia for everything, but they make it clear that, in any case, there will be no agreement. And they are developing an action plan that will be implemented only if the transit is suspended.
It is an illusion that the Latvian government changed its policies and suddenly started caring about the people; put a stop to psychiatric Russophobia; stopping attempts to revise the results of WWII results and to rehabilitate fascism. Latvia’s decision to trade energy on the border with Russia, not through Lithuania as before, could not be adopted without the US’s approval. Such geopolitical deals cannot be made by Latvia without Washington, just as the issues of moderate importance have to be agreed in Brussels. The US’s intention seems to increase leverage over Belarus by intensifying its economic dependence on Latvia. At some point in the future, if no concessions are made by the Belarusian authorities over some matters, Washington will be able to blackmail Minsk, saying that Latvia will interrupt imports of Belarusian energy.
This is a conspiracy which continues a series of disinformation attempts concerning the construction of the Belarusian NPP. It is consistent with recurring narratives about Latvia as a vassal state of the US and the prevalence of fascism and Russophobia in the Baltic countries. Taken that Lithuania considers the Belarusian NPP as insecure and intends to end energy imports from Belarus and that until recently, the Lithuanian-Belarusian border, had been serving the Baltic states as the only point of trade in energy with third countries, Latvia decided to open an energy trade point at the Latvian-Russian border. It is groundless speculation that Latvia sought Washington’s approval to make this decision. Instead, as the Latvian government stated, it consulted neighbouring Estonia and Lithuania and the European Commission over this issue. See previous disinformation cases alleging that Latvia lost its sovereignty to the EU, that its authorities destroyed national banking sector on Washington orders, and that Nazis rule present-time Latvia. Finally, the accusation that Latvia is attempting to revise the results of WWII, it is actually Russia who has published a series of disinformation attempts on this over the past weeks, see, for instance, here, here, here, and here.