The West intends to organize a Maidan in Belarus with the help of Ukrainian fighters and weapons. President Lukashenko wants to improve relations with the West by resolving the conflict in Ukraine. However, the West is disorganised and does not have a common position over Ukraine, which makes conflict resolution impossible.
Belarusian authorities understand that Ukrainian state is in crisis, may soon collapse and be replaced by oligarchic and criminal entities.
The disinformation message also involves pro-Kremlin narrative about the upcoming disintegration of Ukraine.