Disinfo: Western hybrid war against Belarus is a preparation of attack against Russia

Summary

The Belarusian crisis is partly provoked by external interference with the hybrid war methods. In the light of ongoing information war, the West, though it conducts hybrid aggression against Belarus, is presented as a good player, whereas Russia is presented as a threat to Belarus’s sovereignty despite Russian assistance to the Belarusian state. Poland-located information centres which manage the Belarusian protests are among manifestations of Western aggressive actions. They result in an outbreak of violence, political destabilisation and undermined Belarusian economy.

It is clear that relocation of US and NATO troops to Lithuania and Poland, Navalny poisoning and upcoming anti-Russian sanctions are parts of a chain. The US wishes to establish a cordon sanitaire around Russia and needs Belarus as a missing link to put a collar over Russia.

The current hybrid war against Belarus is an exploration of attack against Russia. Given the external threat, the Union State of Belarus and Russia may, on the contrary, be activated. The Belarusian coup organisers will likely reach the opposite effect: Instead of tearing Belarus away from Russia, they will push the integration of the two countries forward. Belarus’s aspiration towards sovereignty was cynically tramped by the West. If needed, additional Russian military objects will be stationed in Belarus. Warsaw, Vilnius, and their Western suzerains should have no doubt about it.

Disproof

This publication promotes recurring pro-Kremlin propaganda narratives about Belarusian protests as being organised and controlled from abroad, particularly from Poland and Lithuania, about Western attempts to disrupt Belarusian-Russian relations in general and the development of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, in particular, and about Poland and Lithuania as US's puppets.

The publication also implicitly accuses the West of Navalny poisoning by conspiring that it was just one in a series of actions to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations. There are no proofs of West's implication in Navalny poisoning. Read our past analyses "Fifty ways to kill Navalny" and "Let's laugh at political murder!" explaining how pro-Kremlin media explain the case of Navalny poisoning, including through humour and ridicule.

There is no evidence that Poland, Lithuania or any other Western governments including the US are involved in any way in the protests in Belarus. The European Council condemned the violence against peaceful protesters and announced that it would soon adopt a list of sanctions for those responsible for violence in Belarus. "As the elections in Belarus were neither free nor fair, and did not meet international standards, the EU does not recognize the results presented by the Belarus authorities," is mentioned in a European Council press release. However, the Western countries did not interfere in Belarus's domestic affairs leaving along a "hybrid war" mentioned in the publication.

The large-scale Belarusian protests began in Minsk on August 9 against the results of the presidential election, and then in other cities. People revolted against election fraud and police violence towards thousands of rally participants. The US and NATO did not increase their military presence near the Belarusian borders following the elections. On 16 August, NATO dismissed allegations that it was conducting a military buildup near the country’s western border.

Lithuania and Poland are independent states, which shape their own foreign and domestic policies. The US is an important ally to the EU but EU policy is not determined by the US, as explained by the EU High Representative.

See earlier disinformation cases claiming that the EU is trying to disrupt Belarus-Russia relations, that the West's only interest in Belarus is to make it anti-Russian, and that the US keeps Poland on a short anti-Russian leash.

publication/media

  • Reported in: Issue 212
  • DATE OF PUBLICATION: 15/09/2020
  • Language/target audience: Russian
  • Country: Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, US, Poland
  • Keywords: Conspiracy theory, Union State of Belarus and Russia, Alexei Navalny, Anti-Russian, Hybrid war, Coup

Disclaimer

Cases in the EUvsDisinfo database focus on messages in the international information space that are identified as providing a partial, distorted, or false depiction of reality and spread key pro-Kremlin messages. This does not necessarily imply, however, that a given outlet is linked to the Kremlin or editorially pro-Kremlin, or that it has intentionally sought to disinform. EUvsDisinfo publications do not represent an official EU position, as the information and opinions expressed are based on media reporting and analysis of the East Stratcom Task Force.

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Getting out of coma proves that Novichok wasn’t used on Navalny

Alexei Navalny’s coma indicates that if we assume that he was poisoned, then Novichok was not used.

Poisoning can be ruled out because there are no symptoms. But even if a dose of 400 times less than the lethal dose was used, he would come out of a coma, but his pupils would remain constricted, and there were no such symptoms.

Disproof

The story is part of an emerging web of counter-narratives designed to confuse Western public opinion and deny Moscow's involvement in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. This argument follows a recurring Kremlin pattern of denying that Navalny was poisoned and that Moscow had anything to do with it. 

In this case, the argument is that Novichok is only a lethal military-grade nerve agent and that the result is always death. However, we know that Novichok is a highly toxic nerve agent that slows the heart, paralyses the muscles used for breathing and — if the dose is big enough — can lead to death by asphyxiation. A smaller dose may result in seizures, neuromuscular weakness, liver failure and other damage. This has been presented in various other reports here, here and here.

US forced Merkel lie about Navalny’s poisoning

(The US) forced Angela Merkel to voice this nonsense (about the poisoning of Alexei Navalny). Note that she resisted for a long time, she sat for two weeks in silence and tried to move away from it.

Disproof

Another pro-Kremlin disinformation narrative and conspiracy theory  alleging that the European Union is under direction from Washington. No evidence is provided to support the claim. Also the claim advances recurrent pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives about the poisoning of activist Alexei Navalny and Western Russophobia.

On August 20, the day Navalny was poisoned, the chancellor stressed that it is necessary to find out what happened to the Russian opposition activist as soon as possible.